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The Impact of Regulatory Stress Testing on Bank's Equity and CDS Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Lukas Ahnert
  • Pascal Vogt
  • Volker Vonhoff
  • Florian Weigert

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of stress testing results on bank's equity and CDS performance using a large sample of ten tests from the US CCAR and the European EBA regimes in the time period between 2010 and 2017. We find that passing banks experience positive abnormal equity returns and tighter CDS spreads, while failing banks show strong drops in equity prices and widening CDS spreads. Interestingly, we also document strong market reactions at the announcement date of the stress tests. A bank’s asset quality and its return on equity at the time of the announcement are significant predictors of the pass/fail outcome of a bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Ahnert & Pascal Vogt & Volker Vonhoff & Florian Weigert, 2018. "The Impact of Regulatory Stress Testing on Bank's Equity and CDS Performance," Working Papers on Finance 1814, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2018:14
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    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/sfwpfi/WPF-1814.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Goldstein, Itay & Sapra, Haresh, 2014. "Should Banks' Stress Test Results be Disclosed? An Analysis of the Costs and Benefits," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(1), pages 1-54, March.
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    7. Carboni, Marika & Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Lopes, Francesco Saverio Stentella, 2017. "Surprised or not surprised? The investors’ reaction to the comprehensive assessment preceding the launch of the banking union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 122-132.
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    11. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    12. Georgescu, Oana-Maria & Gross, Marco & Kapp, Daniel & Kok, Christoffer, 2017. "Do stress tests matter? Evidence from the 2014 and 2016 stress tests," Working Paper Series 2054, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kok, Christoffer & Müller, Carola & Ongena, Steven & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2023. "The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Kund, Arndt-Gerrit & Rugilo, Daniel, 2023. "Does IFRS 9 increase banks’ resilience?," Working Paper Series 2792, European Central Bank.
    3. Sahin, Cenkhan & de Haan, Jakob & Neretina, Ekaterina, 2020. "Banking stress test effects on returns and risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. García, Raffi E. & Steele, Suzanne, 2022. "Stress testing and bank business patterns: A regression discontinuity study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Amavi S. S. Agbodji & Emmanuelle Nys & Alain Sauviat, 2021. "Do CDS Maturities Matter in the Evaluation of the Information Content of Regulatory Banking Stress Tests? Evidence from European and US Stress Tests," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 72(1), pages 65-102.
    6. Karel Janda & Oleg Kravtsov, 2022. "Regulatory Stress Tests and Bank Responses: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect in Dynamic Settings," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 1-49, June.
    7. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2022. "The certification role of the EU-wide stress testing exercises in the stock market. What can we learn from the stress tests (2014-2021)?," Working Paper Series 2711, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Stress Testing; Equity Performance; CDS Performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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