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C-CAPM Refinements and the Cross-Section of Returns

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  • Paul Söderlind

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Abstract

This paper studies if the consumption-based asset pricing model can explain the cross-section of expected returns. The CRRA model and several refinements (habit persistence and idiosyncratic shocks) all imply that the conditional expected return is linearly increasing in the asset's conditional covariance with consumption growth. Results from quarterly data on the 25 Fama-French portfolios suggest that the model has serious problems: there are large and systematic pricing errors. In addition, the estimated time-varying effective risk aversion coefficients appear implausible and are unrelated with most candidates for habit persistence and idiosyncratic risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 with number 2006-07.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2006:2006-07

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Keywords: consumption-based asset pricing; habit persistence; idiosyncratic risk; conditional asset pricing;

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References

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  1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  2. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Idiosyncratic risk and volatility bounds, or can models with idiosyncratic risk solve the equity premium puzzle?," Staff Reports 130, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  5. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
  7. Douglas T. Breeden & Michael R Gibbons & Robert H. Litzenberger, . "Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 7-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  8. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," NBER Working Papers 11468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  10. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
  11. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April.
  12. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2006. "Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1043, June.
  13. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, 08.
  14. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Equity Premium and the Concentration of Aggregate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 1788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  16. Mittelhammer,Ron C. & Judge,George G. & Miller,Douglas J., 2000. "Econometric Foundations Pack with CD-ROM," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521623940.
  17. Gregory R. Duffee, 2005. "Time Variation in the Covariance between Stock Returns and Consumption Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1673-1712, 08.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and Predictability of the Carry Trade Premium: Euro Area Evidence," IEW - Working Papers 387, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Victoria Galsband, 2010. "The cross-section of equity returns and assets’ fundamental cash-flow risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 327-351, December.

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