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C-CAPM Refinements and the Cross-Section of Returns

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  • Paul Söderlind

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Abstract

This paper studies if the consumption-based asset pricing model can explain the cross-section of expected returns. The CRRA model and several refinements (habit persistence and idiosyncratic shocks) all imply that the conditional expected return is linearly increasing in the asset's conditional covariance with consumption growth. Results from quarterly data on the 25 Fama-French portfolios suggest that the model has serious problems: there are large and systematic pricing errors. In addition, the estimated time-varying effective risk aversion coefficients appear implausible and are unrelated with most candidates for habit persistence and idiosyncratic risk.

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File URL: http://www1.vwa.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/dp2006/DP07_So.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 with number 2006-07.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2006:2006-07

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Keywords: consumption-based asset pricing; habit persistence; idiosyncratic risk; conditional asset pricing;

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References

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  1. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Douglas T. Breeden & Michael R Gibbons & Robert H. Litzenberger, . "Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 7-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2084, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  5. Lettau, Martin, 1998. "Idiosyncratic Risk and Volatility Bounds, or, Can Models with Idiosyncratic Risk Solve the Equity Premium Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1795, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
  7. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," NBER Working Papers 3989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, 08.
  9. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
  10. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1986. "The equity premium and the concentration of aggregate shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-219, September.
  11. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  12. Constantinides,George & Duffie,Darrel, 1992. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous consumers," Discussion Paper Serie A 381, University of Bonn, Germany.
  13. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2006. "Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1043, June.
  14. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  15. Gregory R. Duffee, 2005. "Time Variation in the Covariance between Stock Returns and Consumption Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1673-1712, 08.
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  17. Mittelhammer,Ron C. & Judge,George G. & Miller,Douglas J., 2000. "Econometric Foundations Pack with CD-ROM," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521623940, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Nitschka, 2010. "Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 49-65, March.
  2. Victoria Galsband, 2010. "The cross-section of equity returns and assets’ fundamental cash-flow risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 327-351, December.

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