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José V. Rodríguez Mora

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Abstract

Agents use their knowledge on the history of the economy in order to choose what is the optimal action to take at any given moment of time, but each individual observes history with some noise. This paper shows that the amount of information available on the past evolution of the economy is an endogenous variable, and that this leads to overconcentration of the investment, which can be interpreted as underinvestment in research. It presents a model in which agents have to invest at each period in one of $K$ sectors, each of them paying an exogenous return that follows a well defined stochastic path. At any moment of time each agent receives an unbiased noisy signal on the payoff of each sector. The signals differ across agents, but all of them have the same variance, which depends on the aggregate investment in that particular sector (so that if almost everybody invests in it the perceptions of everybody will be very accurate, but if almost nobody does the perceptions of everybody will be very noisy). The degree of hetereogeneity across agents is then an endogenous variable, evolving across time determining, and being determined by, the amount of information disclosed. As long as both the level of social interaction and the underlying precision of the observations are relatively large agents behave in a very precise way. This behavior is unmodified for a huge range of informational parameters, and it is characterized by an excessive concentration of the investment in a few sectors. Additionally the model shows that generalized improvements in the quality of the information that each agent gets may lead to a worse outcome for all the agents due to the overconcentration of the investment that this produces.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 144.

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Date of creation: Sep 1995
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:144

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  24. Serguei Maliar & Igor Kozin & Vitali Perepelitsa, 1995. "Solving Capability of LCA," Economics Working Papers 119, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  29. Giorgia Giovannetti, 1993. "Import Pricing, Domestic Pricing and Market Structure," Economics Working Papers 71, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994. [Downloadable!]
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  31. Walter Garcia Fontes, 1993. "Price Competition in Segmented Industries," Economics Working Papers 34, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  32. Albert Marcet & David A. Marshall, 1992. "Convergence of Approximate Model Solutions to Rational Expectation Equilibria Using the Method of Parameterized Expectations," Economics Working Papers 17, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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  34. Fabio Canova & Morten O. Ravn, 1993. "International Consumption Risk Sharing," Economics Working Papers 135, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1995. [Downloadable!]
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  36. Thierry Foucault, 1994. "Price Formation and Order Placement Strategies in a Dynamic Order Driven Market," Economics Working Papers 99, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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