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Evolution, efficiency and noise traders in a one-sided auction market

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  • Luo, Guo Ying

Abstract

This paper uses an evolutionary approach incorporating the idea of natural selection to examine market behavior in a one-sided buyer auction market. Even with no traders' rationality (such as rational expectations and adaptive learning) and with each trader's behavior preprogrammed with its own inherent and fixed probabilities of overpredicting, predicting correctly and underpredicting the fundamental value of the asset, an informationally efficient market can occur. Traders' behavior is consistent with systematic patterns of judgment biases as documented in the psychological literature. Specifically, shares of one unit of a risky asset are sold at the beginning and liquidated at the end of each time period. The asset's liquidation value is the product of its fundamental value and the exponential of a random shock. Buyers enter the market sequentially over time and each buyer merely acts upon its own inherent and fixed probabilities of overpredicting, predicting correctly and underpredicting the fundamental value. As time goes by there is a constant redistribution of wealth toward buyers who make better predictions. This paper shows that if each buyer's initial wealth is sufficiently small relative to the market supply and if the variation in the random shock to the asset is sufficiently small, then as time gets sufficiently large, the proportion of time, that the asset price is arbitrarily close to the fundamental liquidation value, converges to one with probability one. This conclusion is established under a weak restriction regarding the presence of traders with sufficiently low probabilities of overpredicting the fundamental value.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 163-197

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:163-197

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar

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  1. Wilson, Robert, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 675-89, November.
  2. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Shyam Sunder, 1996. "Tracking the invisible hand: Convergence of double auctions to competitive equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 91, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  3. Forsythe, Robert & Palfrey, Thomas R. & Plott, Charles R., . "Asset Valuation in an Experimental Market," Working Papers 299, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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  5. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February.
  6. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  7. Sanford Grossman, 1978. "Further results on the informational efficiency of competitive stock markets," Special Studies Papers 114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Grossman, Sanford, 1978. "Further results on the informational efficiency of competitive stock markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 81-101, June.
  9. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
  11. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May.
  12. Luo, Guo Ying, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Natural Selection in a Commodity Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 647-74.
  13. Lettau, Martin, 1997. "Explaining the facts with adaptive agents: The case of mutual fund flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1117-1147, June.
  14. Luo Guo Ying, 1995. "Evolution and Market Competition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 223-250, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Luo, Guo Ying, 2012. "Conservative traders, natural selection and market efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 310-335.

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