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Does trade integration imply growth in Latin America? Evidence from a dynamic spatial spillover model

Author

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  • F. Blasques

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • P. Gorgi

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • S. J. Koopman

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • J. Sampi

    (World Bank)

Abstract

To investigate the role of intra-regional trade integration on economic growth in Latin America, we develop a multilevel spatial production network model with time-varying parameters. The theoretical model is established for a multi-country and multi-sectoral economy. The reduced-form econometric framework relies partly on observation-driven dynamic processes. The finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimates are investigated through a Monte Carlo study. The empirical study is for six countries in Latin America. The findings suggest that intra-country spillovers configure an important factor for explaining growth, while the importance of domestic spillovers is limited. The growth volatility is substantively reduced since 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Blasques & P. Gorgi & S. J. Koopman & J. Sampi, 2023. "Does trade integration imply growth in Latin America? Evidence from a dynamic spatial spillover model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-007/IVI, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial network model; multilevel model; time-varying parameters; economic modeling; trade liberization; growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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