IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20220017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk-Taking, Competition and Uncertainty: Do Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Bonds Increase the Risk Appetite of Banks?

Author

Listed:
  • Mahmoud Fatouh

    (University of Essex)

  • Ioana Neamtu

    (Bank of England)

  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

We assess the impact of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds and the wealth transfers they imply conditional on conversion on the risk-taking behaviour of the issuing bank. We also test for regulatory arbitrage: do banks try to maintain risk-taking incentives by issuing CoCo bonds, when regulators reduce them through higher capitalization ratios? While we test for, and reject sample selection bias, we show that CoCo bonds issuance has a strong positive effect on risk-taking behaviour, particularly with conversion parameters that reduce dilution of existing shareholders upon conversion. Higher economic volatility amplifies the impact of CoCo bonds on risk-taking.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmoud Fatouh & Ioana Neamtu & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2022. "Risk-Taking, Competition and Uncertainty: Do Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Bonds Increase the Risk Appetite of Banks?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-017/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/22017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier D’Haultfoeuille & Arnaud Maurel & Xiaoyun Qiu & Yichong Zhang, 2020. "Estimating selection models without an instrument with Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 20(2), pages 297-308, June.
    2. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Avdjiev, Stefan & Bogdanova, Bilyana & Bolton, Patrick & Jiang, Wei & Kartasheva, Anastasia, 2020. "CoCo issuance and bank fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 593-613.
    4. Jan Boone, 2008. "A New Way to Measure Competition," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1245-1261, August.
    5. Matthew Baron & Emil Verner & Wei Xiong, 2021. "Banking Crises Without Panics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 51-113.
    6. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Delis, Manthos D. & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2011. "Regulations, competition and bank risk-taking in transition countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 38-48, January.
    7. Berg, Tobias & Kaserer, Christoph, 2015. "Does contingent capital induce excessive risk-taking?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 356-385.
    8. Martynova, Natalya & Perotti, Enrico, 2018. "Convertible bonds and bank risk-taking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 61-80.
    9. Goncharenko, Roman & Ongena, Steven & Rauf, Asad, 2021. "The agency of CoCos: Why contingent convertible bonds are not for everyone," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    10. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
    11. Stephanie Chan & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2016. "Coco Design, Risk Shifting Incentives and Capital Regulation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-007/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Nov 2017.
    12. D’Haultfœuille, Xavier & Maurel, Arnaud & Zhang, Yichong, 2018. "Extremal quantile regressions for selection models and the black–white wage gap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 129-142.
    13. James J. Heckman, 1976. "Introduction to "Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4"," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Fiordelisi, Franco & Pennacchi, George & Ricci, Ornella, 2020. "Are contingent convertibles going-concern capital?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    15. Manuel Ammann & Kristian Blickle & Christian Ehmann, 2017. "Announcement Effects of Contingent Convertible Securities: Evidence from the Global Banking Industry," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), pages 127-152, January.
    16. Jan Boone, 2008. "A New Way to Measure Competition," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1245-1261, August.
    17. David S. Lee, 2009. "Training, Wages, and Sample Selection: Estimating Sharp Bounds on Treatment Effects," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 1071-1102.
    18. Cosslett, Stephen R, 1983. "Distribution-Free Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Binary Choice Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 765-782, May.
    19. Nicole M. Boyson & Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & René M. Stulz, 2016. "Why Don't All Banks Practice Regulatory Arbitrage? Evidence from Usage of Trust-Preferred Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1821-1859.
    20. Dandan Song & Zhaojun Yang, 2016. "Contingent Capital, Real Options, and Agency Costs," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 3-40, March.
    21. Haddow, Abigail & Hare, Chris & Hooley, John & Shakir, Tamarah, 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(2), pages 100-109.
    22. Ahn, Hyungtaik & Powell, James L., 1993. "Semiparametric estimation of censored selection models with a nonparametric selection mechanism," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 3-29, July.
    23. Chan, Stephanie & Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2017. "CoCo Design, Risk Shifting Incentives and Financial Fragility," ECMI Papers 12166, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    24. Hilscher, Jens & Raviv, Alon, 2014. "Bank stability and market discipline: The effect of contingent capital on risk taking and default probability," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 542-560.
    25. de-Ramon, Sebastian & Francis, William B & Straughan, Michael, 2020. "The link between bank competition and risk in the United Kingdom: two views for policymaking," Bank of England working papers 885, Bank of England.
    26. Klein, Roger W & Spady, Richard H, 1993. "An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 387-421, March.
    27. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    28. J A de-Ramon, Sebastian & Straughan, Michael, 2016. "Measuring competition in the UK deposit-taking sector," Bank of England working papers 631, Bank of England.
    29. Matthew Baron & Emil Verner & Wei Xiong, 0. "Banking Crises Without Panics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(1), pages 51-113.
    30. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2015. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure, and the Low-Risk Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 315-320, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fatouh, Mahmoud & Neamțu, Ioana & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2021. "Risk-taking and uncertainty: do contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds increase the risk appetite of banks?," Bank of England working papers 938, Bank of England.
    2. Philippe Oster, 2020. "Contingent Convertible bond literature review: making everything and nothing possible?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 343-381, December.
    3. Michael Sigmund & Kevin Zimmermann, 2021. "Determinants of Contingent Convertible Bond Coupon Rates of Banks: An Empirical Analysis (Michael Sigmund, Kevin Zimmermann)," Working Papers 236, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Goncharenko, Roman & Ongena, Steven & Rauf, Asad, 2021. "The agency of CoCos: Why contingent convertible bonds are not for everyone," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. Mendes, Layla dos Santos & Leite, Rodrigo de Oliveira & Fajardo, José, 2022. "Do contingent convertible bonds reduce systemic risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Goncharenko, Roman & Ongena, Steven & Rauf, Asad, 2017. "The agency of CoCo: Why do banks issue contingent convertible bonds?," CFS Working Paper Series 586, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Raviv, Alon & Hilscher, Jens & Peleg Lazar, Sharon, 2021. "Designing bankers' pay: Using contingent capital to reduce risk-shifting," MPRA Paper 106596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Roman Goncharenko, 2022. "Fighting Fire with Gasoline: CoCos in Lieu of Equity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 493-517, March.
    9. Allen, Linda & Golfari, Andrea, 2023. "Do CoCos serve the goals of macroprudential supervisors or bank managers?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Giovanni Calice & Carlo Sala & Daniele Tantari, 2020. "Contingent Convertible Bonds in Financial Networks," Papers 2009.00062, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    11. Avdjiev, Stefan & Bogdanova, Bilyana & Bolton, Patrick & Jiang, Wei & Kartasheva, Anastasia, 2020. "CoCo issuance and bank fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 593-613.
    12. Pierluigi Bologna & Arianna Miglietta & Anatoli Segura, 2020. "Contagion in the CoCos Market? A Case Study of Two Stress Events," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 137-184, December.
    13. Wang, Xiaodong & Han, Liang & Huang, Xing, 2020. "Bank market power and SME finance: Firm-bank evidence from European countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Usman Bashir & Shoaib Khan & Abdulhafiz Jones & Muntazir Hussain, 2021. "Do banking system transparency and market structure affect financial stability of Chinese banks?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 1-41, February.
    15. Craig, Ben R. & Dinger, Valeriya, 2013. "Deposit market competition, wholesale funding, and bank risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3605-3622.
    16. Pigini Claudia, 2015. "Bivariate Non-Normality in the Sample Selection Model," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young, 2021. "On the preferences of CoCo bond buyers and sellers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Dalia Ghanem & Sarojini Hirshleifer & Karen Ortiz-Becerra, 2019. "Testing Attrition Bias in Field Experiments," Working Papers 202218, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    19. Ioana Neamtu, 2020. "Multiple buffer CoCos and their impact on financial stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-010/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Faluk Shair & Na Sun & Sun Shaorong & Firdos Atta & Muhammad Hussain, 2019. "Impacts of risk and competition on the profitability of banks: Empirical evidence from Pakistan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-27, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    contingent convertible bonds; risk-taking; bank capital structure; selection bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.