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Scoring Bank Loans that may go wrong: A Case Study

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  • J.S. Cramer

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

A bank employs logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection to identify loans thatmay go wrong. Inspection shows that the logit model is inappropriate. A bounded logit model witha ceiling of (far) less than 1 fits the data much better.

Suggested Citation

  • J.S. Cramer, 2000. "Scoring Bank Loans that may go wrong: A Case Study," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-090/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20000090
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yu Xie & Charles F. Manski, 1989. "The Logit Model and Response-Based Samples," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 17(3), pages 283-302, February.
    2. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
    3. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Slagter, E. & Cramer, J.S., 1999. "Censored regression analysis in large samples with many zero observations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9939-A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Manski, Charles F & Lerman, Steven R, 1977. "The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(8), pages 1977-1988, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ha-Thu Nguyen, 2015. "How is credit scoring used to predict default in China?," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Annemiek Vuren & Daniel Vuuren, 2007. "Financial Incentives in Disability Insurance in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 73-98, March.
    3. Annemiek Vuren & Daniel Vuuren, 2007. "Financial Incentives in Disability Insurance in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 73-98, March.
    4. J.S. Cramer, 2005. "Omitted Variables and Misspecified Disturbances in the Logit Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-084/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Medema, Lydian & Koning, Ruud H. & Lensink, Robert, 2009. "A practical approach to validating a PD model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 701-708, April.
    6. Hussein A. Abdou & John Pointon, 2011. "Credit Scoring, Statistical Techniques And Evaluation Criteria: A Review Of The Literature," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2-3), pages 59-88, April.

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