IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/452.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When can micro properties be used to predict aggregate demand?

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Heterogeneity in consumer behaviour creates differences in demand responses, which may create problems with aggregation across consumers. If aggregation problems exist, results from estimation based on aggregate data may prove difficult to interpret. Using estimation results from micro data to predict aggregate demand responses may also create disaggregation bias (the reverse aggregation problem). The aim of this paper is to discuss potential problems of using micro data to predict aggregate demand, and how such problems relate to the linear and non-linear aggregation problem. We also expand the theories of linear and non-linear aggregation to the case in which prices vary across agents. We formulate and test criteria for aggregation by using data on Norwegian household electricity consumption. We find clear evidence of aggregation problems, as heterogeneity in both price and income derivatives are significant. We thus expect to experience problems with aggregation when analysing Norwegian household electricity consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Bente Halvorsen, 2006. "When can micro properties be used to predict aggregate demand?," Discussion Papers 452, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:452
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp452.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blundell, Richard & Meghir, Costas & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "Aggregation and consumer behaviour: some recent results," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 235-252, September.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-597, June.
    3. Lau, Lawrence J. & Wu, Ho-mou, 1987. "Exact aggregation when prices are variable across individuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-7.
    4. Buse, Adolf, 1992. "Aggregation, Distribution and Dynamics in the Linear and Quadratic Expenditure Systems," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 45-53, February.
    5. Frank Denton & Dean Mountain, 2004. "Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 613-628, August.
    6. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain, 2004. "Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 613-628, August.
    7. Lau, Lawrence J. & Wu, Ho-Mou, 1996. "Exact aggregation under summability and homogeneity with individually variable prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 329-335, March.
    8. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    9. Denton, Frank T. & Mountain, Dean C., 2001. "Income distribution and aggregation/disaggregation biases in the measurement of consumer demand elasticities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 21-28, October.
    10. Stoker, Thomas M, 1986. "Simple Tests of Distributional Effects on Macroeconomic Equations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 763-795, August.
    11. Lau, Lawrence J., 1982. "A note on the fundamental theorem of exact aggregation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 119-126.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bente Halvorsen & Bodil M. Larsen, 2008. "The Role of Heterogeneous Demand for Temporal and Structural Aggregation Bias," Discussion Papers 537, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain, 2016. "Biases in consumer elasticities based on micro and aggregate data: an integrated framework and empirical evaluation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 531-560, March.
    2. Bente Halvorsen & Bodil M. Larsen, 2008. "The Role of Heterogeneous Demand for Temporal and Structural Aggregation Bias," Discussion Papers 537, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain, 2011. "Aggregation and Other Biases in the Calculation of Consumer Elasticities for Models of Arbitrary Rank," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 447, McMaster University.
    4. Denton, Frank T. & Mountain, Dean C., 2011. "Exploring the effects of aggregation error in the estimation of consumer demand elasticities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1747-1755, July.
    5. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain, 2007. "Exploring the Effects of Aggregation Error in the Estimation of Consumer Demand Elasticities," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 226, McMaster University.
    6. Frank Denton & Dean Mountain, 2014. "The implications of mean scaling for the calculation of aggregate consumer elasticities," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 12(3), pages 297-314, September.
    7. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain & Byron G Spencer, 2006. "Errors of aggregation and errors of specification in a consumer demand model: a theoretical note," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1398-1407, November.
    8. Bente Halvorsen & Bodil M. Larsen, 2006. "Aggregation with price variation and heterogeneity across consumers," Discussion Papers 489, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Frank Denton & Dean Mountain, 2004. "Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 613-628, August.
    10. Bente Halvorsen & Bodil M. Larsen, 2013. "How serious is the aggregation problem? An empirical illustration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3786-3794, September.
    11. Frank Denton & Dean Mountain & Byron Spencer, 2006. "Age, Retirement, and Expenditure Patterns: An Econometric Study of Older Households," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 421-434, December.
    12. Gallet, Craig A., 2010. "The income elasticity of meat: a meta-analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 1-14.
    13. LaFrance, Jeffrey T., 2008. "The structure of US food demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 336-349, December.
    14. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain, 2004. "Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 613-628, August.
    15. Kesavan, Thulasiram, 1988. "Monte Carlo experiments of market demand theory," ISU General Staff Papers 198801010800009854, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Laisney, François, 1991. "Mikroökonometrische Untersuchung von Aggregationsproblemen: Eine partielle Übersicht," ZEW Discussion Papers 91-03, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Arman Bidarbakht Nia, 2017. "A generalization to QUAIDS," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 393-410, February.
    18. Giorgio Fagiolo, 2001. "Engel Curves Specification in an Artificial Model of Consumption Dynamics with Socially Evolving Preferences," LEM Papers Series 2001/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. Peng Su & Xiaochun Jiang & Chengbo Yang & Ting Wang & Xing Feng, 2019. "Insufficient Consumption Demand of Chinese Urban Residents: An Explanation of the Consumption Structure Effect from Income Distribution Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, February.
    20. Baek, Ji Won, 2016. "The effects of the Internet and mobile services on urban household expenditures: The case of South Korea," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 22-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregation problems; Electricity demand; Microeconometrics.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: L Maasø (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.