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The Role of Heterogeneous Demand for Temporal and Structural Aggregation Bias

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    Abstract

    Differences in estimated parameters depending on the frequency of aggregate data have been reported in several fields of economic research. Some differences are due to seasonal variations in demand, but temporal aggregation bias is reported even in seasonally adjusted models. These biases have been explained by time-nonseparable preferences and excluded dynamic components. We show that it is possible to observe temporal aggregation bias in a seasonally adjusted static model even when preferences are time-separable. This is because of changes in the distribution of exogenous factors describing the variation in seasonal demand across consumers. To show this, we develop a method for aggregation based on an Almost Ideal Demand System, where demand response varies across both consumers and time

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    Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 537.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:537

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    Keywords: Temporal aggregation; Consumer demand; Heterogeneity;

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    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Denton, Frank T. & Mountain, Dean C., 2001. "Income distribution and aggregation/disaggregation biases in the measurement of consumer demand elasticities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 21-28, October.
    3. Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon & Ravn, Morten O. & Rey, Hélène, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 3715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    7. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Marshall, David, 1991. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 397-423, March.
    8. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain, 2002. "Aggregation Effects on Price and Expenditure Elasticities in a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 374, McMaster University.
    9. Bente Halvorsen, 2006. "When can micro properties be used to predict aggregate demand?," Discussion Papers 452, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    10. Buse, Adolf, 1992. "Aggregation, Distribution and Dynamics in the Linear and Quadratic Expenditure Systems," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 45-53, February.
    11. Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation Over Individuals," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1827-74, December.
    12. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
    13. Bente Halvorsen & Bodil M. Larsen, 2006. "Aggregation with price variation and heterogeneity across consumers," Discussion Papers 489, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    14. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
    15. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier.
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