IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssa/lemwps/2021-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Italian firms in times of troubles: Covid-19 pandemic as a test of structural solidity

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Costa
  • Federico Sallusti
  • Claudio Vicarelli
  • Davide Zurlo

Abstract

In this paper we study the structural robustness of Italian business system, using Covid-19 pandemic as an exogenous event to test it. To this aim, we use the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) methodology, quite new for Economics, to classify Italian firms according to their economic solidity, obtaining a taxonomy based on a wide set of characteristics. Our results show that the number of 'Solid' firms are less than one fifth of the universe of Italian enterprises but they represent the lion share in terms of employment and value added. 'Fragile' and 'Risky' firms, albeit much less relevant for the creation of value added, account for over one third of total employment, so that they are a worrisome issue for policy makers. The pandemic crisis has clearly both a size and sector-related dimension: Risky and Fragile conditions prevail among firms with smaller economic size (a broad definition of firm size) and among those operating in Construction and Other services. Finally, we find that factors such as firms' performance, internal and external organization, although significant, play a less relevant role than economic size and digitalization/innovation in determining Italian firms' solidity to shocks such as the Covid-19 one.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2021. "Italian firms in times of troubles: Covid-19 pandemic as a test of structural solidity," LEM Papers Series 2021/47, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2021-47.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    2. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 0. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    3. Sirio Aramonte & Fernando Avalos, 2020. "Corporate credit markets after the initial pandemic shock," BIS Bulletins 26, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Peter Gal & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Theodore Renault & Stéphane Sorbe & Christina Timiliotis, 2019. "Digitalisation and productivity: In search of the holy grail – Firm-level empirical evidence from EU countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1533, OECD Publishing.
    5. Bajgar, Matej & Berlingieri, Giuseppe & Calligaris, Sara & Criscuolo, Chiara & Timmis, Jonathan, 2019. "Industry concentration in Europe and North America," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103427, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Peter Gal & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christina von Rüden & Stéphane Sorbe & Théodore Renault, 2019. "Digitalization and Productivity: In Search of the Holy Grail - Firm-level Empirical Evidence from European Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 37, pages 39-71, Fall.
    7. Matej Bajgar & Giuseppe Berlingieri & Sara Calligaris & Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan Timmis, 2019. "Industry concentration in Europe and North America," CEP Discussion Papers dp1654, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Carol Corrado & Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan Haskel & Alexander Himbert & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2021. "New evidence on intangibles, diffusion and productivity," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2021/10, OECD Publishing.
    9. Christoph E. Boehm & Aaron Flaaen & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2019. "Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 60-75, March.
    10. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo & Peter N. Gal, 2016. "The Best versus the Rest: The Global Productivity Slowdown, Divergence across Firms and the Role of Public Policy," OECD Productivity Working Papers 5, OECD Publishing.
    11. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoe Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(30), pages 17656-17666, July.
    12. Lilas Demmou & Sara Calligaris & Guido Franco & Dennis Dlugosch & Müge Adalet McGowan & Sahra Sakha, 2021. "Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responses," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1651, OECD Publishing.
    13. Khandani, Amir E. & Kim, Adlar J. & Lo, Andrew W., 2010. "Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2767-2787, November.
    14. Manuel Adelino & Song Ma & David Robinson, 2017. "Firm Age, Investment Opportunities, and Job Creation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 999-1038, June.
    15. Flavio Calvino & Chiara Criscuolo & Rudy Verlhac, 2020. "Declining business dynamism: Structural and policy determinants," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers 94, OECD Publishing.
    16. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    17. Tokui, Joji & Kawasaki, Kazuyasu & Miyagawa, Tsutomu, 2017. "The economic impact of supply chain disruptions from the Great East-Japan earthquake," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 59-70.
    18. Flavio Calvino & Chiara Criscuolo & Carlo Menon, 2015. "Cross-country evidence on start-up dynamics," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2015/6, OECD Publishing.
    19. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2019. "Over the ROC methodology: Productivity, economic size and firms’ export thresholds," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 955-980, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Costa, Stefano & Sallusti, Federico & Vicarelli, Claudio & Zurlo, Davide, 2022. "Firms’ solidity before an exogenous shock: Covid-19 pandemic in Italy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 946-961.
    2. Criscuolo, Chiara & Hijzen, Alexander & Schwellnus, Cyrille & Barth, Erling & Chen, Wen-Hao & Fabling, Richard & Fialho, Priscilla & Grabska, Katarzyna & Kambayashi, Ryo & Leidecker, Timo & Nordström , 2020. "Workforce Composition, Productivity and Pay: The Role of Firms in Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 13212, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Garnadt, Niklas & von Rueden, Christina & Thiel, Esther, 2021. "Labour reallocation dynamics in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic and past recessions," Working Papers 08/2021, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera & Nam Vu, 2023. "The flood that caused a drought," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(4), pages 965-981, October.
    5. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    6. Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2020. "Financial Constraints and propagation of shocks in production network," Discussion Papers 2020-23, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    7. Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2022. "The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters Through Industrial Linkages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(1), pages 177-225, May.
    8. Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2021. "On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 895-921.
    9. Anirudh Shingal & Prachi Agarwal, 2020. "How did trade in GVC-based products respond to previous health shocks? Lessons for COVID-19," RSCAS Working Papers 2020/68, European University Institute.
    10. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    11. Doerr, S. & Erdem, M. & Franco, G. & Gambacorta, L. & Illes, A., 2021. "Technological capacity and firms’ recovery from Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    12. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, "undated". "The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission," Working Papers 669, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    13. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-10, September.
    14. Daniel Goya, 2019. "Chinese competition and network effects on the extensive margin," Working Papers 2019-01, Escuela de Negocios y Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso.
    15. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Glenn Magerman, 2022. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1933-1970.
    16. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2021. "Direct and network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2765-2793, June.
    18. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    19. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous firms and the micro origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Research 312, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2022. "Intersectoral network‐based channel of aggregate TFP shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3897-3910, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; ROC analysis; economic solidity to pandemic.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labssit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.