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Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms

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  • Khandani, Amir E.
  • Kim, Adlar J.
  • Lo, Andrew W.

Abstract

We apply machine-learning techniques to construct nonlinear nonparametric forecasting models of consumer credit risk. By combining customer transactions and credit bureau data from January 2005 to April 2009 for a sample of a major commercial bank's customers, we are able to construct out-of-sample forecasts that significantly improve the classification rates of credit-card-holder delinquencies and defaults, with linear regression R2's of forecasted/realized delinquencies of 85%. Using conservative assumptions for the costs and benefits of cutting credit lines based on machine-learning forecasts, we estimate the cost savings to range from 6% to 25% of total losses. Moreover, the time-series patterns of estimated delinquency rates from this model over the course of the recent financial crisis suggest that aggregated consumer credit-risk analytics may have important applications in forecasting systemic risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 2767-2787

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2767-2787

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Related research

Keywords: Household behavior Consumer credit risk Credit card borrowing Machine learning Nonparametric estimation;

References

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  1. Carbó Valverde Santiago & Massoud Nadia & Rodríguez-Fernández Francisco & Saunders Anthony & Scholnick Barry, 2007. "The Economics of Credit Cards, Debit Cards and ATMs: A Survey and Some New Evidence," Working Papers 201074, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
  2. Robert B. Avery & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 2003. "An overview of consumer data and credit reporting," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 47-73.
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  9. Drehmann, Mathias & Sorensen, Steffen & Stringa, Marco, 2010. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 713-729, April.
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  11. Dean P. Foster & Robert A. Stine, 2001. "Variable Selection in Data Mining: Building a Predictive Model for Bankruptcy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-05, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. Thomas, Lyn C., 2009. "Consumer Credit Models: Pricing, Profit and Portfolios," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199232130, September.
  13. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2010. "Benefits of relationship banking: evidence from consumer credit markets," Working Paper Series WP-2010-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Pérignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2010. "The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-377, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. �scar Jord� & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
  2. Aussenegg, Wolfgang & Resch, Florian & Winkler, Gerhard, 2011. "Pitfalls and remedies in testing the calibration quality of rating systems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 698-708, March.
  3. Bücker, Michael & van Kampen, Maarten & Krämer, Walter, 2013. "Reject inference in consumer credit scoring with nonignorable missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1040-1045.
  4. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2014. "Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index," Working Papers 201418, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
  6. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  7. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-77, April.
  8. Stanhouse, Bryan & Schwarzkopf, Al & Ingram, Matt, 2011. "A computational approach to pricing a bank credit line," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1341-1351, June.

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