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Over the ROC methodology: Productivity, economic size and firms’ export thresholds

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  • Stefano Costa
  • Federico Sallusti
  • Claudio Vicarelli
  • Davide Zurlo

Abstract

We identify the minimum combinations of productivity and “economic size” that Italian manufacturing firms need to achieve in order to access international markets. These “export thresholds” are estimated by applying, for the first time in economics, the ROC (receiver operating characteristics) methodology. In this way, we detect a model‐based (rather than a subjectively determined) cut‐off that allows to identify exporters and nonexporters and provides a measure of each firm’s distance from the export threshold. This methodology also paves the way to investigate other determinants of thresholds, thus helping to design more effective policy interventions to reduce barriers to trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2019. "Over the ROC methodology: Productivity, economic size and firms’ export thresholds," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 955-980, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:27:y:2019:i:3:p:955-980
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12405
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2021. "Italian firms in times of troubles: Covid-19 pandemic as a test of structural solidity," LEM Papers Series 2021/47, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Costa, Stefano & Sallusti, Federico & Vicarelli, Claudio & Zurlo, Davide, 2022. "Firms’ solidity before an exogenous shock: Covid-19 pandemic in Italy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 946-961.
    3. Jylhä, Petri & Lof, Matthijs, 2022. "Mind the Basel gap," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2019. "Tech on the ROC: A New Way of Looking at Exporting Firms," Working Papers LuissLab 19152, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    5. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2022. "Tech on the ROC: export threshold and technology adoption interacted," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1593-1611, December.

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