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Economic Growth, the Mathematical Pendulum, and a Golden Rule of Thumb

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Thomas Christiaans ()
Abstract

It is argued that due to their general instability dynamic optimization models cannot be used as positive theories of economic growth. The argument is substantiated by (numerical) examples. A simple rule of thumb is provided as an alternative to the RKC model. This rule is shown to perform well from a normativeand to be reasonable from a positive point of view. The model is consistent with empirically estimated rates of convergence if a broad concept of capital is used.

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Paper provided by Universität Siegen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht in its series Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeitraege with number 94-01.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sie:siegen:94-01

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Web page: http://www.uni-siegen.de/fb5/vwl/research/diskussionsbeitraege/

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - General

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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brock, William A. & Scheinkman, JoseA., 1976. "Global asymptotic stability of optimal control systems with applications to the theory of economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 164-190, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Samuelson, Paul A., 1972. "The general saddlepoint property of optimal-control motions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 102-120, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1976. "Introduction to Hamiltonian dynamics in economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-48, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1990. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation and Value-Function Iteration: A Comparison," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 99-113, January.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony Jr., 1996. "Rules of thumb in macroeconomic equilibrium A quantitative analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 527-558, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Theo S. Eicher & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Uwe Walz, 2000. "Optimal Policy for Financial Market Liberalizations: Decentralization and Capital Flow Reversals," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 19-42, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Walter Buhr & Thomas Christiaans, 2000. "Economic Decisions by Approved Principles: Rules of Thumb as Behavioral Guidelines," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeitraege 89-00, Universität Siegen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  12. Levhari, David & Liviatan, Nissan, 1972. "On stability in the saddle-point sense," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 88-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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