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Using Spatial Econometrics to Analyze Local Growth in Sweden

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  • Johan Lundberg

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Abstract

This paper investigates factors that determine the average income growth and net migration rates in Swedish municipalities during the period 1981 to 1999. The main issue is to test the hypothesis that, conditional on a set of other possible determinants of regional growth, the growth rate in one municipality is affected by the growth rates in its neighboring municipalities. We also test the hypothesis of conditional convergence, that is, the hypothesis that initially 'poorer' regions tend to grow faster than initially 'richer' regions conditional on the other explanatory variables in the model. We find a positive correlation between net migration rates in neighboring municipalities, which suggests that net migration tend to 'spill over' to neighboring municipalities. When it comes to average income growth, our results indicate spatial dependence in the error terms during the 1980's. Such dependence is important in the sense that it indicates that shocks into the system not only affect the municipality where the shock has its origin but spread across the country. In addition, and in contrast to previous empirical findings based on Swedish data, we do not find any clear evidence in favour of the hypothesis of conditional convergence. Instead, our results predict conditional divergence between municipalities located in the Stockholm region throughout the period and also for municipalities outside the Stockholm region during the 1990's.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa04p25.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa04p25

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rita De Siano & Marcella D'Uva, 2010. "Specialization and growth in Italy: what spatial econometric analysis tells us," Discussion Papers 1_2010, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  2. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "A spatial model based on the endogenous growth theory for Portugal. Another analysis," MPRA Paper 33712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Andy Pike, 2007. "Editorial: Whither Regional Studies?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 1143-1148.
  4. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "Analysis of spatial effects in vine crop across Portuguese regions," MPRA Paper 33200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Vitor Joao Pereira Domingues Martinho, 2011. "Spatial Autocorrelation and Verdoorn Law in the Portuguese NUTs III," Papers 1110.5578, arXiv.org.
  6. Vítor Martinho, 2011. "Spatial Effects in Convergence of Portuguese Product," Working Papers 79, globADVANTAGE, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria.
  7. Maria Abreu & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2004. "Space and Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-129/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "Net migration and convergence in Portugal," MPRA Paper 32799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "A spatial model based on the endogenous growth theory for Portugal. Another approach," MPRA Paper 33713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "A spatial model based on the endogenous growth theory for Portugal," MPRA Paper 33711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Maria Abreu & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2004. "Space and Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-129/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. James A Giesecke & John R Madden, 2006. "Uncovering the Factors behind Comparative Regional Economic Performance: A Dynamic CGE Approach," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-165, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  13. Maria ABREU & Henri L.F. DE GROOT & Raymond J.G.M. FLORAX, 2005. "Space And Growth: A Survey Of Empirical Evidence And Methods," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 21, pages 13-44.
  14. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "Spatial effects and Verdoorn law in the Portuguese context," MPRA Paper 32183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Vitor Joao Pereira Domingues Martinho, 2011. "Spatial Effects and Convergence Theory in the Portuguese Situation," Papers 1110.5571, arXiv.org.
  16. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "Analysis of spatial effects in vine and olive crops across Portuguese regions," MPRA Paper 33201, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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