IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sgc/wpaper/84.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental change - a preliminary approach using stock, environmental, and management constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Christine Roeckmann
  • Uwe A. Schneider
  • Michael A. St.John
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

The population dynamics of the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.), unlike many other stocks, shows a strong dependency on environmental conditions. To test the implications of different management policies on the stock and the fishery in a system of global environmental change, we apply a spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model of the Eastern Baltic cod stock in 50 year simulation analyses. The simulation provides an analysis of stock, yield, and revenue development under various management policies and environmental scenarios. The policy analysis, focusing on different regulations of fishing mortality, is embedded into three environmental scenarios, assuming low, medium, or high climate and environmental change. The environmental assumptions are based on simulation results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, which project salinity in the Baltic Sea to decrease by 7-47% in the period 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1961-1990. Our simulation results show that a significant reduction in fishing mortality is necessary for achieving high long-term economic yields. Moreover, under the presented environmental scenarios, a stock collapse cannot be prevented. It can, however, be postponed by the establishment of a marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine Roeckmann & Uwe A. Schneider & Michael A. St.John & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental change - a preliminary approach using stock, environmental, and management constraints," Working Papers FNU-84, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:84
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/WP_FNU84_revised_Roeckmann.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Trond Bjørndal & Daniel Gordon & Veijo Kaitala & Marko Lindroos, 2004. "International Management Strategies for a Straddling Fish Stock: A Bio-Economic Simulation Model of the Norwegian Spring-Spawning Herring Fishery," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(4), pages 435-457, December.
    2. Jeffrey A. Hutchings, 2004. "The cod that got away," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6986), pages 899-900, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christine Roeckmann & Uwe A. Schneider & Michael A. St.John & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental change - Part II: The economic viability of a marine protected area," Working Papers FNU-106, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
    2. Kelsall, Claudia & Quaas, Martin F. & Quérou, Nicolas, 2023. "Risk aversion in renewable resource harvesting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Hutniczak, Barbara, 2015. "Modeling heterogeneous fleet in an ecosystem based management context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 203-214.
    4. Ute Kapaun & Martin Quaas, 2013. "Does the Optimal Size of a Fish Stock Increase with Environmental Uncertainties?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 293-310, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ni, Yuanming & Steinshamn, Stein I. & Kvamsdal, Sturla F., 2022. "Negative shocks in an age-structured bioeconomic model and how to deal with them," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 15-30.
    2. Da Rocha, José María & Gutiérrez Huerta, María José, 2010. "Endogenous fisheries management in a stochastic model: Why do fishery agencies use TAC," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    3. Elofsson, Katarina & Bengtsson, Goran & Gren, Ing-Marie, 2011. "Optimal Management of Invasive Species with Different Reproduction and Survival Strategies," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114343, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. José-María Da Rocha & María-Jose Gutiérrez & Luis Antelo, 2013. "Selectivity, Pulse Fishing and Endogenous Lifespan in Beverton-Holt Models," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 139-154, January.
    5. Trond Bjørndal & Marko Lindroos, 2004. "International Management of North-Sea Herring," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(1), pages 83-96, September.
    6. Da Rocha, José María & Gutiérrez Huerta, María José & Taboada Antelo, Luis, 2011. "Pulse vs. Optimal Stationary Fishing: The Northern Stock of Hake," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    7. Hansen, Lars Gårn & Jensen, Frank & Russell, Clifford, 2013. "Instrument choice when regulators are concerned about resource extinction," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 135-147.
    8. Antti Iho & Heini Ahtiainen & Janne Artell & Outi Heikinheimo & Pirkko Kauppila & Anna-Kaisa Kosenius & Marita Laukkanen & Marko Lindroos & Soile Oinonen & Kimmo Ollikka & Katja Parkkila & Yulia Pavlo, 2017. "The Role of Fisheries in Optimal Eutrophication Management," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-27, April.
    9. Ellefsen, Hans & Kronbak, Lone Grønbæk & Ravn-Jonsen, Lars, 2014. "On International Fisheries Agreements, Entry Deterrence and Ecological Uncertainty," Discussion Papers on Economics 18/2014, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    10. Kulmala, Soile & Laukkanen, Marita & Michielsens, Catherine, 2008. "Reconciling economic and biological modeling of migratory fish stocks: Optimal management of the Atlantic salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 716-728, February.
    11. Delang, Claudio O., 2006. "Not just minor forest products: The economic rationale for the consumption of wild food plants by subsistence farmers," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-73, August.
    12. Trond Bjørndal & Nils-Arne Ekerhovd, 2014. "Management of Pelagic Fisheries in the North East Atlantic: Norwegian Spring Spawning Herring, Mackerel, and Blue Whiting," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 69-83.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Baltic cod; climate change; environmental variability; reproductive volume; population dynamics; management; policy; age-structured model; temporal marine reserve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Uwe Schneider (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zmhamde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.