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Klum: A Simple Model Of Global Agricultural Land Use As A Coupling Tool Of Economy And Vegetation

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  • Kerstin Ronneberger
  • Uwe A. Schneider
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

The Kleines Land Use Model (KLUM), is a global agricultural landallocation model, developed as a tool to dynamically couple global state-of-the-art vegetation and economy models. The allocation process is based on profit maximisation, assuming risk aversion and decreasing returns to scales. The model is suited for long-term predictions, acknowledges spatial and biophysical diversity and enables the data exchange with common vegetation models. Finally, the effective simplicity of the mechanism facilitates online-coupling with larger models. Simulations of future crop allocation under climate change suggest that cultivation of cereals would fall in favour of minor crops such as vegetables and fruits. Total revenue of crop production is predicted to increase for most parts of the world. The comparison with two reference scenarios, where solely prices or yields are changed show that the observed results are dominated by the induced price changes. Losses in revenue prevail and changes in area are more balanced over the world when only the much smaller yield changes are applied. Yet, the simple sum of price and yield effects on crop allocation can differ in magnitude and sign from the real dynamics, emphasising the importance of simultaneous inclusion of economic and biophysical aspects of land-use decisions.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/KLUM_WP.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-65.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision: May 2005
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:65

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Keywords: global land-use model; crop allocation; feed back loop; climate change;

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References

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  1. van Tongeren, Frank & van Meijl, Hans & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 149-172, November.
  2. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  3. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1996. "Land use and cover in ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 157-181, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Melania Michetti & Matteo Zampieri, 2014. "Climate–Human–Land Interactions: A Review of Major Modelling Approaches," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 793-833, July.
  2. Kerstin Ronneberger & Maria Berrittella & Francesco Bosello & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "KLUM@GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling experiment," Working Papers FNU-105, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
  3. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving land-use modelling within CGE to assess forest-based mitigation potential and costs," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124887, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  4. Gary W. Yohe & Richard S.J. Tol & Dean Murphy, 2007. "On Setting Near-term Climate Policy while the Dust Begins to Settle: The Legacy of the Stern Review," Working Papers FNU-129, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Mar 2007.

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