IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sek/iacpro/5307026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effect of the psychological factor among companies onto the NAIRU and economic cycle on the labour market

Author

Listed:
  • Emilie Ja?ová

    (University of Economics in Prague)

Abstract

The paper focuses on mapping the uncertainties in real economy. It develops a Central European parallel to the VIX fear and uncertainty index in condition of Hungary and Poland. It extends the number of representatives of the demand shock in the standard Gordon?s Triangle model with the index of uncertainty perception among companies. The Kalman filter will be used for estimating the value of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and economic cycle without and with the effect of the psychological factor among companies. We verify results with the corresponding real economy data. Five scenarios will describe the relationship between the uncertainty perception among companies and the unemployment rate. The analysis quantifies the intensity of the effect of the psychological factor on the supply side on the labour market in Hungary and Poland. It will outline the consequences for the economic policymakers too.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilie Ja?ová, 2016. "The effect of the psychological factor among companies onto the NAIRU and economic cycle on the labour market," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5307026, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iacpro:5307026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iises.net/proceedings/27th-international-academic-conference-prague/table-of-content/detail?cid=53&iid=020&rid=7026
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1985. "The early history of the Phillips curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 71(Sep), pages 17-24.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    3. James Tobin & Sergio Parrinello & Paolo Sylos Labini, 1999. "Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Giancarlo Gandolfo & Ferruccio Marzano (ed.), Economic Theory and Social Justice, chapter 1, pages 35-62, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 4, pages 83-143, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    7. Kahneman, Daniel, 2002. "Maps of Bounded Rationality," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2002-4, Nobel Prize Committee.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emilie Jasova, 2014. "A Model for Estimation of NAIRU Extended by Demand Shocks and its Application to Business Cycle Analysis in the Labour Market in Hungary and Poland," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401788, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    2. Emilie Jašová & Božena Kaderábková, 2012. "Comparing NAIRU and Economic Cycle from the Perspective of Labour Market in the Countries of the Visegrad Group," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 3-23.
    3. Bozena Kaderabkova, 2016. "Development of the economic cycle on labour market in the national economy and industry of the Czech Republi," Proceedings of Business and Management Conferences 4407037, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    4. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
    5. Bo?ena Kade?ábková & Emilie Ja?ová, 0000. "Phillips curve during the economic cycle in the Czech Republic and Poland in the years 2000 to 2016," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413218, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    9. Giraud, Gaël & Grasselli, Matheus, 2021. "Household debt: The missing link between inequality and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 901-927.
    10. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bozena Kaderabkova & Emilie Jasova & Robert Holman, 2020. "Analysis of substitution changes in the Phillips curve in V4 countries over the course of economic cycles," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 39-54, December.
    12. Klára ?ermáková & Emilie Ja?ová, 2019. "Analysis of the Negative and Positive Impact of Institutional Factors on Unemployment in Visegrad Countries," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(1), pages 20-34, June.
    13. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
    14. Vít Pošta, 2015. "Semi-structural estimates of time-varying NAIRU based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: evidence from Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    15. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    16. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
    17. Antonella Palumbo, 2008. "I metodi di stima del PIL potenziale tra fondamenti di Teoria economica e Contenuto empirico," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0092, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    18. Pirmin Fessler & Fabio Rumler & Gerhard Schwarz, 2014. "A micro-based non-inflationary rate of capacity utilisation as a measure of inflationary pressure: evidence for Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 23-36, February.
    19. Božena Kadeřábková & Emilie Jašová, 2011. "Analýza ukazatele NAIRU na sektorové úrovni [Analysis of the Indicator NAIRU on the Sector Level]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 508-525.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index of uncertainty perception among companies; Phillips Curve; NAIRU; Kalman filter; Unemployment gap.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sek:iacpro:5307026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klara Cermakova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://iises.net/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.