Succes and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market
AbstractA large set of 5350 trend following technical trading rules is applied to LIFFE and CSCE cocoa futures prices, and to the Pound-Dollar exchange rate, in the period 1983:1-1997:6. We find that 72% of the trading rules generates positive profits, even when correcting for transaction and borrowing costs, when applied to the LIFFE cocoa futures prices. Moreover, a large set of trading rules exhibits statistically significant forecasting power of the LIFFE cocoa futures series. On the other hand the same set of strategies performs poor on the CSCE cocoa futures prices, with only 18% generating positive net profits and hardly any statistically significant forecasting power. The large difference in the performance of technical trading may be attributed to a combination of the demand/supply mechanism in the cocoa market and an accidental influence of the Pound-Dollar exchange rate, reinforcing trends in the LIFFE cocoa futures but weakening trends in the CSCE cocoa futures. Our case-study suggests a connection between the succes or failure of technical trading and the relative magnitudes of trend and volatility of the underlying series.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 120.
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html
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trading rules; technical analysis; commodity futures;
Other versions of this item:
- Boswijk, H.P. & Griffioen, G.A.W. & Hommes, C.H., 2000. "Succes and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Gerwin Griffioen & Peter Boswijk & Cars Hommes, 2001. "Success and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 4A.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Peter Boswijk & Gerwin Griffioen & Cars Hommes, 2001. "Success and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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- Cars Hommes & Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2004.
"A Dynamical Analysis of Moving Average Rules,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2004
238, Society for Computational Economics.
- Carl Chiarella & Tony He & Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-057/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Cars Hommes, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Research Paper Series 133, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Chiarella, C. & He, X.-Z. & Hommes, C.H., 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Colin Fyfe & John Paul Marney & Heather Tarbert, 2005. "Risk adjusted returns from technical trading: a genetic programming approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1073-1077.
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