A Dynamic Non-Tatonnement Macroeconomic Model With Stochastic Rationing
AbstractThe paper considers a dynamic macroeconomic model with stochastic quantity rationing. The economy is composed of overlapping-generations consumers, producers and a government who interact in a labor and a consumption goods market. Agents behave optimizing and trade in each period, even when prices are not at their Walrasian level. This is rendered possible by means of feasible allocations using the concept of temporary equilibrium with quantity rationing. We give a complete characterization of the typology of these equilibria (Keynesian, Inflationary, Classical, of Underemployment, as well as Walrasian). Moving to the dynamics of the model, prices and wages are adjusted following, alternatively, linear or non-linear adjustment rules. The size of price adjustment is based on the intensity of rationing, a reliable measure of which is obtained through stochastic rationing. This methodology allows us to encompass a wide variety of interesting economic circumstances, in particular the impact of various degrees of price and wage flexibility on the structural dynamic behavior of the model. Parameters such as the adjustment speed of prices and those referring to government policy are in fact decisive for the type of dynamics that emerges. The model, by providing an endogenous explanation of possible transitions between different (dis)equilibrium regimes, results to be a suitable framework for the analysis of alternative economic policies.Numerical simulations have shown that, contrary to what is commonly expected regarding the stabilizing effect of price flexibility, the economy can be subject to complex dynamics. By deviating from the Walrasian parameter set in some of the relevant parameters (initial conditions, technological coefficients, government policy instruments), the simulations establish the existence of complex and strange geometric objects. In particular it is possible to obtain dynamic phenomena like bifurcations and (strange) attractors. One of the attractors in the plane of wage inflation rate and unemployment rate displays a Phillips curve, which emerges by very construction as a true long-run phenomenon. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of a Phillips curve generated as an attractor of a dynamical economic system. Also it emerges quite clearly that cycles of different order co-exist for the same parameter set, but for different initial conditions. Therefore, a minor variation in the initial state can drive the system to a completely different cycle or, in other words, there is sensitive dependence of the order of a cycle on initial conditions.Of particular interest in the context of our macroeconomic model is the impact of variations in the values of the government policy instruments. Here we make use of a new technical tool, called cartogram, which provides a concise visualization technique and permits to establish a relationship between the values of the relevant parameters and the structure of the resulting dynamics (although it is not able to distinguish between regular quasi-periodic behavior and ''true'' chaotic motion). As an economic result, the use of this tool suggests quite clearly that the stabilization of the economy by means of fiscal policies is a most delicate matter, even though there is a tendency for nominal wage stickiness to favor this goal.Finally, we show the existence of quasi-stationary states involving underemployment and underutilization of production capacities, proving that the flexibility of prices and wages per se is not sufficient to overcome situations of market imbalances. This is due to the spillover effects between the labor and the consumption goods market, and could not have been obtained in partial equilibrium models. For example, in a state of Keynesian underemployment, there is excess supply on both markets. Therefore both the goods price and the wage diminish. However, if both decrease in the same measure, their ratio (the real wage) remains constant. If, in addition, there is a government balance surplus, the money stock decreases. If this decrease is proportional to the one in price and wage, the real stock of money held by consumers does not change. Thus it is possible that, in addition to the real wage, also the real wealth of households remains constant. In these circumstances, no agent has any incentive to modify her decisions relative to the ones taken in the previous period. Therefore, the state of the economy is stationary with respect to its real variables, although the nominal ones do change.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 with number 198.
Date of creation: 05 Jul 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
Fax: +34 93 542 17 46
Web page: http://enginy.upf.es/SCE/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1984. "Involuntary Unemployment as a Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1351-64, November.
- Gale, Douglas, 1981. "Large Economies with Trading Uncertainty: A Correction," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 363-64, April.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-44, December.
- Benassy Jean-pascal, 1974.
"Neokeynesian disequilibrium theory in a monetary economy,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1975. "Neo-Keynesian Disequilibrium Theory in a Monetary Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 503-23, October.
- Muellbauer, John & Portes, Richard, 1978. "Macroeconomic Models with Quantity Rationing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 788-821, December.
- Frank Hahn & Robert Solow, 1997. "A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026258154x, December.
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
- Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1991.
"Sticky Prices as Coordination Failure,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 539-52, June.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993.
"Temporary general equilibrium theory,"
Handbook of Mathematical Economics,
in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 879-922
- Gale, Douglas, 1979. "Large Economies with Trading Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 319-38, April.
- Dreze, Jacques H, 1975. "Existence of an Exchange Equilibrium under Price Rigidities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 301-20, June.
- Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1996. "Keynesian Involuntary Unemployment and Sticky Nominal Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1564-85, November.
- Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1976. "The Disequilibrium Approach to Monopolistic Price Setting and General Monopolistic Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 69-81, February.
- C Bean, 1992.
"European Unemployment: A Survey,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Gerd Weinrich, 1997. "Endogenous fixprices and sticky price adjustment of risk-averse firms," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 283-305, October.
- Solow, Robert M., 1979. "Another possible source of wage stickiness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 79-82.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Ito, Takatoshi, 1985. " On Macroeconomic Equilibrium with Stochastic Rationing," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 66-88.
- Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February.
- Weinrich, Gerd, 1997. "Endogenous Fixprices and Sticky Price Adjustment of Risk-averse Firms," MPRA Paper 6302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "A Near-rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Intertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 823-38, Supp..
- Dennis W. Carlton, 1986.
"The Rigidity of Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
1813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-25, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.