IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rza/wpaper/114.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is There A SADC Business Cycle: Evidence from Dynamic Factor Model

Author

Listed:
  • Harold P. E. Ngawala
  • Ntokozo P. Nzimande

Abstract

Countries that are successfully executing trade and economic liberalization are experiencing high levels of economic growth and improved living standards. Therefore, in striving to eradicate poverty and promote economic growth the African Union (AU) made its goal to form a monetary union followed by a single currency for the whole continent of Africa (Tipoy, 2015), […]

Suggested Citation

  • Harold P. E. Ngawala & Ntokozo P. Nzimande, 2017. "Is There A SADC Business Cycle: Evidence from Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers 114, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econrsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/research_brief_114.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abhijit Banerjee & Sebastian Galiani & Jim Levinsohn & Zoë McLaren & Ingrid Woolard, 2008. "Why has unemployment risen in the New South Africa?1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 715-740, October.
    2. Kalie Pauw & Lawrence Edwards, 2006. "Evaluating The General Equilibrium Effects Of A Wage Subsidy Scheme For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 442-462, September.
    3. Nickell, Stephen & Nunziata, Luca & Ochel, Wolfgang & Quintini, Glenda, 2001. "The Beveridge curve, unemployment and wages in the OECD from the 1960s to the 1990s - preliminary version," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20113, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Morne Oosthuizen & Haroon Bhorat, 2005. "The Post-Apartheid South African Labour Market," Working Papers 05093, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    5. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "Understanding South Africa's economic puzzles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 769-797, October.
    7. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Rodrik, Dani, 1989. "Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Do Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 283-287, May.
    8. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 54, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Morne Oosthuizen, 2006. "The Post-Apartheid Labour Market: 1995-2004," Working Papers 06103, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Matias Braun & Johannes Fedderke, 2008. "Competition and productivity growth in South Africa," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 741-768, October.
    11. Essama-Nssah, B. & Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Korman, Vijdan & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2007. "Economy-wide and distributional impacts of an oil price shock on the south African economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4354, The World Bank.
    12. Kingdon, Geeta Gandhi & Knight, John, 2004. "Unemployment in South Africa: The Nature of the Beast," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 391-408, March.
    13. E. Paul Durrenberger, 2005. "Labour," Chapters, in: James G. Carrier (ed.), A Handbook of Economic Anthropology, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2004. "An Analysis of South Africa's Value Added Tax," Conference papers 331274, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Taryn Dinkelman & Farah Pirouz, 2002. "Individual, Household And Regional Determinants Of Labour Force Attachment In South Africa:," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(5), pages 865-891, June.
    16. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. L Edwards, 2001. "Globalisation And The Skills Bias Of Occupational Employment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(1), pages 40-71, March.
    18. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    19. Unknown, 2001. "General Discussion," Proceedings of the 6th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 2000: Trade Liberalization Under NAFTA: Report Card on Agriculture 16839, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    20. D. Boccanfuso & F. Cabral & F. Cissé & A. Diagne & L. Savard, 2003. "Pauvreté et distribution de revenus au Sénégal: une approche par la modélisation en équilibre général calculable micro-simulé," Cahiers de recherche 0333, CIRPEE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bourguignon, François & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2013. "Income Distribution in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1383-1437, Elsevier.
    2. Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thierfelder,Karen E. & Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thier, 2017. "Assessing the global economic and poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8133, The World Bank.
    3. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Barış, Enis & Go, Delfin S. & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2018. "Assessing the global poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 148-160.
    4. Levinsohn, James & Pugatch, Todd, 2014. "Prospective analysis of a wage subsidy for Cape Town youth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-183.
    5. Andrew Kerr, 2018. "Job Flows, Worker Flows and Churning in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(S1), pages 141-166, January.
    6. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Robinson, Sherman, 2013. "Contribution of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling to Policy Formulation in Developing Countries," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 277-301, Elsevier.
    7. Rob Davies & James Thurlow, 2010. "Formal–Informal Economy Linkages And Unemployment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 437-459, December.
    8. Homma, Takashi & Akimoto, Keigo & Tomoda, Toshimasa, 2009. "Evaluation of CO2 emissions based on the consumption-based measurement under CO2 reduction scenarios of different reduction levels," Conference papers 331871, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Burns, Justine & Edwards, Lawrence & Pauw, Karl, 2010. "Wage subsidies to combat unemployment and poverty," IFPRI discussion papers 969, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Andrew Kerr, 2018. "Job Flows, Worker Flows and Churning in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(S1), pages 141-166, January.
    11. Mattie Susan Landman & Neave O'Clery, 2020. "The impact of the Employment Equity Act on female inter-industry labour mobility and the gender wage gap in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-52, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Go, Delfin S. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2016. "Natural resource revenue, spending strategies and economic growth in Niger," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 564-573.
    13. Robert Hill & Kezia Lilenstein & Amy Thornton, 2020. "Job spells in an emerging market: Evidence from apartheid and post-apartheid South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-27, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2009. "Tax policy to reduce carbon emissions in south Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4933, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Fedderke, 2012. "The Cost of Rigidity: The Case of the South African Labor Market," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(4), pages 809-842, December.
    2. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Tregenna, Fiona, 2019. "Trade liberalization and local labor market adjustment in South Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 448-467.
    3. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2009. "Tax policy to reduce carbon emissions in south Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4933, The World Bank.
    4. Burns, Justine & Edwards, Lawrence & Pauw, Karl, 2010. "Wage subsidies to combat unemployment and poverty," IFPRI discussion papers 969, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Fabre, Alice & Pallage, Stéphane, 2015. "Child labor, idiosyncratic shocks, and social policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 394-411.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "Understanding South Africa's economic puzzles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 769-797, October.
    7. Essers, Dennis, 2013. "South African labour market transitions during the global financial and economic crisis: Micro-level evidence from the NIDS panel and matched QLFS cross-sections," IOB Working Papers 2013.12, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    8. Rob Davies & James Thurlow, 2010. "Formal–Informal Economy Linkages And Unemployment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 437-459, December.
    9. Frederick C.v.N. Fourie, 2011. "The South African unemployment debate: three worlds, three discourses?," SALDRU Working Papers 63, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    10. Maria S. Floro & Hitomi Komatsu, 2011. "Labor Force Participation, Gender and Work in South Africa: What Can Time Use Data Reveal?," Working Papers 2011-02, American University, Department of Economics.
    11. Miriam Altman, 2008. "Revisiting South African Employment Trends In The 1990s," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(s2), pages 126-147, August.
    12. Ricardo Hausmann & Bailey Klinger & Rodrigo Wagner, 2008. "Doing Growth Diagnostics in Practice: A 'Mindbook'," CID Working Papers 177, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    13. Calvin Z. Djiofack & Eric W. Djimeu & Matthieu Boussichas, 2014. "Editor's choice Impact of Qualified Worker Emigration on Poverty: A Macro–Micro-Simulation Approach for an African Economy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(1), pages 1-52.
    14. Fedderke, Johannes W. & Hill, Andrew J., 2011. "Industry structure and labor market flexibility in the South African manufacturing sector: A time series and panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1291-1302, May.
    15. Nicola Branson, 2006. "The South African Labour Market 1995-2004: A Cohort Analysis," SALDRU Working Papers 7, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    16. Biniam E. Bedasso, 2015. "How Does Human Capital Shape the Social Contract?," Working Papers 46, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    17. Dennis Essers, 2014. "South African Labour Market Transitions During the Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Micro-Level Evidence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-115, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Bhorat, Haroon & Goga, Sumayya & Stanwix, Benjamin, 2014. "Skills-biased labour demand and the pursuit of inclusive growth in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 130, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Todd Pugatch, 2014. "Safety valve or sinkhole? Vocational schooling in South Africa," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, December.
    20. Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2004. "An Analysis of South Africa's Value Added Tax," Conference papers 331274, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Macroeconomic Models; SADC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maggi Sigg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersacza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.