Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa
AbstractThis paper applies an alternative dating algorithm - suggested by Harding and Pagan (for example, 2002a) - to identify the turning points of the South African business cycle. The characteristics of the resulting business cycle are analysed and compared with results obtained for the official cycle in recent papers on the South African business cycle (du Plessis and Smit, 2003; du Plessis, 2004). The alternative business cycle has plausible characteristics and provides supporting evidence for the thesis that monetary policy has been used more consistently to dampen the cycle of economic activity in South Africa since the early nineties.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 10.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Newlands on Main, F0301 3rd Floor Mariendahl House, cnr Campground and Main Rds, Claremont, 7700 Cape Town
Phone: 021 671-3980
Fax: +27 21 671 3912
Web page: http://www.econrsa.org/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- du Plessis, S.A., 2006. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-774, September.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000.
"Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
- Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
- Wesley C. Mitchell, 1923. "Introduction to "Business Cycles and Unemployment"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles and Unemployment, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christina D. Romer, 1999.
"Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations,"
NBER Working Papers
6948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
- Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003.
"The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November.
- Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
- Harding, Don, 2002. "The Australian Business Cycle: A New View," MPRA Paper 3698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- du Plessis, S. A., 2004. "Stretching the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 685-701, July.
- Stan Du plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007.
"The Cyclicality Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In South Africa Since 1994,"
South African Journal of Economics,
Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 391-411, 09.
- Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "The cyclicality of monetary and fiscal policy in South Africa since 1994," Working Papers 12/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
- Léonce Ndikumana, 2005.
"Can macroeconomic policy stimulate private investment in South Africa? New insights from aggregate and manufacturing sector-level evidence,"
UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers
2005-14, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
- Leonce Ndikumana, 2008. "Can macroeconomic policy stimulate private investment in South Africa? New insights from aggregate and manufacturing sector-level evidence," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 869-887.
- Léonce Ndikumana, 2005. "Can Macroeconomic Policy Stimulate Private Investment in South Africa? New Insights from Aggregate and Manufacturing Sector-Level Evidence," Working Papers wp106, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Sushanta Mallick & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 677-694, September.
- Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "Real Effects Of Monetary Policy In Large Emerging Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 190-212, September.
- Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014.
"Housing and the business cycle in South Africa,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
- Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 765-793, November.
- Stan Du Plessis & Kevin Kotze, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Wh Boshoff, 2005.
"The Properties Of Cycles In South African Financial Variables And Their Relation To The Business Cycle,"
South African Journal of Economics,
Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 694-709, December.
- Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
- AdÃ©l Bosch & Franz Ruch, 2012. "An alternative business cycle dating procedure for South Africa," Working Papers 267, Economic Research Southern Africa.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yoemna Mosaval).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.