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Can macroeconomic policy stimulate private investment in South Africa? New insights from aggregate and manufacturing sector-level evidence

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Author Info
Léonce Ndikumana () (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

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Abstract

This study explores the determinants of investment using both aggregated industry-level data and disaggretated data on 27 sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector for the period 1970-2001. According to the results in this study, the government has potentially powerful means at its disposal to stimulate private investment. In particular, a domestic demand stimulus and public investment expansion will produce large gains in private investment. While the direct effects of lowering the interest rate appear to be quantitatively small, indirect effects operating notably through domestic demand and cheaper credit are likely to be large. The evidence in this study also indicates that it is important to minimize exchange rate instability to encourage investment. JEL Categories: E22; E52; E62

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Paper provided by University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2005-14.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2005-14

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Keywords: South Africa; private investment; public investment; monetary policy; fiscal policy;

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  1. W.A. Naudéa & R. Oostendorp & P.A.E. Serumaga-Zake, 2002. "South African Manufacturing In An African Context," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(8), pages 1247-1272, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ndikumana, Leonce, 2000. "Financial Determinants of Domestic Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 381-400, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mohsin S. Khan, 1996. "Government Investment and Economic Growth in the Developing World," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 419-439. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vishnu Padayachee, 2001. "Central Bank transformation in a globalized world: the Reserve Bank in post-apartheid South Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 741-765. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Fielding,, . "Aggregate Investment in South Africa: A Model with Implications for Political Reform," Discussion Papers 96/13, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
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  6. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Explaining African Economic Performance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 64-111, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Khan, Mohsin S. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1990. "Private investment and economic growth in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-27, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. S.A. Du Plessis, 2002. "EVALUATING THE SARB's INFLATION TARGET," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(6), pages 982-1007, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Reinikka, Ritva & Svensson, Jakob, 1999. "How inadequate provision of public infrastructure and services affects private investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2262, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Aron, J. & Elbadawi, I. & Kahn, B., 1998. "Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in South Africa," Working Papers Series 98-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
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  12. De Long, J Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Reinikka, Ritva & Svensson, Jakob, 2002. "Coping with poor public capital," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 51-69, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lawrence Edwards & StephenS. Golub, 2003. "South African Productivity And Capital Accumulation In Manufacturing: An International Comparative Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(4), pages 659-678, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Johannes Fedderke, 2004. "Investment in Fixed Capital Stock: Testing for the Impact of Sectoral and Systemic Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 165-187, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Edwards, Lawrence & Golub, Stephen S., 2004. "South Africa's International Cost Competitiveness and Exports in Manufacturing," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1323-1339, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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