Pricing Decisions and Insider Trading in Horse Betting Markets
AbstractThis paper builds on a theoretical model by Schnytzer, Lamers, and Makropoulou (2010) that conceptualizes fixed odds horse betting markets as implicit call option markets. We model the decision making process of a bookmaker that sets his prices under uncertainty. We extend the paper of Schnytzer et al. (2010) by relaxing some assumptions and allowing for betting at multiple time periods. We show that when a bookmaker follows this pricing process built upon implicit options, the returns will exhibit a favorite-longshot bias. By performing Monte Carlo simulations we generate the option values and are able to measure the degree of insider trading, which we find to be around 60% in our dataset.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 12/772.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Betting; Insider Trading; Contingent Pricing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
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- Adi Schnytzer & Yuval Shilony, 2002. "On the timing of inside trades in a betting market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 176-186.
- Vasiliki Makropoulou & Raphael N. Markellos, 2011. "Optimal Price Setting In Fixed‐Odds Betting Markets Under Information Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(4), pages 519-536, 09.
- Adi Schnytzer & Martien Lamers & Vasiliki Makropoulou, 2009.
"Measuring the Extent of Inside Trading in Horse Betting Markets,"
2009-10, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
- Adi Schnytzer & Martien Lamers & Vasiliki Makropoulou, 2010. "Measuring the Extent of Inside Trading in Horse Betting Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(2), pages 21-41, September.
- Quandt, Richard E, 1986. "Betting and Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 201-07, February.
- Shin, Hyun Song, 1991. "Optimal Betting Odds against Insider Traders," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1179-85, September.
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