IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/fcnwpa/2014_005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Backtesting and Evaluation of Different Trading Schemes for the Portfolio Management of Natural Gas

Author

Listed:
  • Popov, Maxim

    (Nexus Energie GmbH)

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

Abstract

The aim of our research is to test and evaluate the technical indicators and oscillators, which are commonly used on other stocks and commodity markets (e.g. moving averages, stochastic oscillator, etc.) in terms of their efficiency at the present European natural gas virtual trading points (VTPs). The decisive factors are the achievable cost savings in purchases. The scope of our work includes the testing of trading systems on historical prices of European natural gas VTPs. These trading systems will be compared with each other and evaluated in terms of their efficiency and long-term stability. The results show that in more than half of the cases, the average buying price of natural gas is lower than the median price; hence the use of technical-indicator-based trading systems in natural gas procurement portfolio management would be beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • Popov, Maxim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2014. "Backtesting and Evaluation of Different Trading Schemes for the Portfolio Management of Natural Gas," FCN Working Papers 5/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2014_005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fcn.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaajdxtf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2012. "Intraday technical analysis of individual stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3033-3047.
    2. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Sikveland, Marius, 2013. "The relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 212-217.
    3. Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2012. "Toward the integration of European natural gas markets:A time-varying approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 779-790.
    4. Ming-Ming, Lai & Siok-Hwa, Lau, 2006. "The profitability of the simple moving averages and trading range breakout in the Asian stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 144-170, February.
    5. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2013. "Price discovery in European natural gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 628-634.
    6. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
    7. Tanaka-Yamawaki, Mieko & Tokuoka, Seiji, 2007. "Adaptive use of technical indicators for the prediction of intra-day stock prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 125-133.
    8. Ellis, Craig A. & Parbery, Simon A., 2005. "Is smarter better? A comparison of adaptive, and simple moving average trading strategies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-411, September.
    9. Aguilera, Roberto F., 2010. "The future of the European natural gas market: A quantitative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3332-3339.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    4. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    5. Akcora, Begum & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2023. "Price bubbles in the European natural gas market between 2011 and 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Stefan Thoenes, 2014. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    7. Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Are European natural gas markets connected? A time-varying spillovers analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    9. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2023. "Examining the Drivers of Natural Gas Price in Europe - Focus on the Role of Speculators," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 356-366, May.
    10. Batten, Jonathan A. & Lucey, Brian M. & McGroarty, Frank & Peat, Maurice & Urquhart, Andrew, 2018. "Does intraday technical trading have predictive power in precious metal markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-113.
    11. Szafranek, Karol & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2023. "How immune is the connectedness of European natural gas markets to exceptional shocks?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    12. Xiaoye Jin, 2022. "Evaluating the predictive power of intraday technical trading in China's crude oil market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1416-1432, November.
    13. Didenko Alexander & Demicheva Svetlana, 2013. "Application of Ensemble Learning for views generation in Meucci portfolio optimization framework," Review of Business and Economics Studies, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 1, pages 100-110.
    14. Chen, Yufeng & Wang, Chuwen & Zhu, Zhitao, 2022. "Toward the integration of European gas futures market under COVID-19 shock: A quantile connectedness approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    15. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    16. Sebastian Nick, 2016. "The Informational Efficiency of European Natural Gas Hubs: Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    17. Konstandinos Chourmouziadis & Dimitra K. Chourmouziadou & Prodromos D. Chatzoglou, 2021. "Embedding Four Medium-Term Technical Indicators to an Intelligent Stock Trading Fuzzy System for Predicting: A Portfolio Management Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1183-1216, April.
    18. Jin, Xiaoye, 2022. "Performance of intraday technical trading in China’s gold market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Olivier Massol & Albert Banal-Estañol, 2017. "Market Power and Spatial Arbitrage beween Interconnected Gas Hubs," Working Papers hal-03186965, HAL.
    20. Vera Jotanovic & Rita Laura D’Ecclesia, 2021. "The European gas market: new evidences," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 963-999, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio management; Virtual trading point; Title transfer facility; Backtesting; Natural gas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2014_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hendrik Schmitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fceonde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.