Macro-fiscal volatility and the composition of public spending
AbstractEarlier empirical literature has examined some long- and medium-term aspects of macro-fiscal volatility while leaving its short-term fiscal impact unexplored. To help fill that gap, we examine the impact of macro-fiscal volatility on the composition of public spending. To that end, we analyse a panel of 10 EU countries during 1991—2007. Our results suggest that contemporaneous increases in the volatility of regularly collected revenues such as the VAT and income taxes tend to tilt the expenditure composition in favour of public investment. In contrast, increases in the volatility of ad hoc –type of taxes such as capital taxes tend to favour public consumption spending. A possible explanation to these differences concerns news about the underlying economic conditions embedded in short-term volatility changes: the policy maker may be more inclined to increase public investment in response to persistent changes in the economic conditions, while temporary changes may prompt a reaction on consumption spending.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Investment Bank, Economics Department in its series Economic and Financial Reports with number 2010/3.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 28 Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 100, boulevard Konrad Adenauer, L-2950 Luxembourg
Phone: (+352) 43 79 1
Fax: (+352) 43 79 68 895
Web page: http://www.eib.org/efs/
More information through EDIRC
tax volatility; public investment; public consumption;
Other versions of this item:
- Sara Maria Riscado & Juraj Stančík & Timo Välilä, 2011. "Macro‐Fiscal Volatility and the Composition of Public Spending," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 511-538, December.
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H29 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2010-04-17 (European Economics)
- NEP-PBE-2010-04-17 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lane, Philip R., 2003.
"The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
- Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008.
"Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth,"
Working Paper Series
0849, European Central Bank.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/04, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gonzalez Alegre, Juan & Kappeler, Andreas & Kolev, Atanas & Valila, Timo, 2008. "Composition of government investment in Europe: Some forensic evidence," EIB Papers 2/2008, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
- Furceri, Davide & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2008. "Government spending volatility and the size of nations," Working Paper Series 0924, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Schumacher).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.