Salaire minimum au Maroc : faits stylisés et impacts économiques

In this work, we explore the impact of Minimum wage increase in Morocco on a set of macroeconomic variables of interest for the decision maker. The adopted methodology has three elements: firstly, an analysis of the stylized facts relative to the minimum wage in Morocco is conducted, secondly, an estimate of the impact of its rise on the labor market is performed via a Bayesian VAR and finally, a simulation of these shocks to the rest of the economy is displayed through the MOPAM, the simulation model of Bank Al-Maghrib. The results indicate that the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage (Kaitz index) remains significantly high in Morocco and the wage distribution is skewed around the minimum wage, especially during the years marked by weak growth. Simulation of a 5% increase in minimum wage shows, moreover, that the latter would have a negative, albeit moderate, impact on the Moroccan economy. Nevertheless, the limited effects on the main macroeconomic variables, mitigated by the adverse implications for unemployment, are mainly due to the magnitude of the initial increase of 5%. Non-linear effects may accentuate these effects for larger increases.