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A Short-Run Analysis of Exchange Rates and International Trade with an Application to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan

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  • Anson, José

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Boffa, Mauro

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Helble, Matthias

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

The information and communication technology (ICT) revolution of the past 3 decades has transformed the world into an integrated marketplace. Today, producers and consumers alike are able to compare the prices of local businesses and worldwide sellers. For an increasing number of tradable goods, they can take advantage of arbitrage opportunities between online and offline transactions. One of the key exogenous elements behind this arbitrage is exchange rate movements. The existing literature on exchange rates has concluded that nominal prices can be assumed to be rigid, which thus opens the door to short-term international arbitrage. However, empirical evidence of international short-term arbitrage has so far been lacking due to data constraints. In this paper, we first present a new dataset that holds records on daily international exchanges of goods, namely those sent through the international postal logistics network. We then combine this data set with daily data on international exchange rate movements to test the hypothesis of international arbitrage. Applying different econometric techniques, we show that in an environment of floating exchange rates, almost instantaneous short-term international arbitrage is indeed occurring and that it has a persistent effect. The effect seems to be particularly pronounced in the developed countries of Asia and the Pacific.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 471.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 04 Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0471

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Keywords: price stickiness; international arbitrage; international trade; exchange rates;

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  1. Gita Gopinath & Roberto Rigobon, 2006. "Sticky Borders," NBER Working Papers 12095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ariel Burstein & Gita Gopinath, 2013. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Linda S. Goldberg & Cedric Tille, 2005. "Vehicle Currency Use in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 611-626, January.
  5. Charles Engel, 2003. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 231-300 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Richard Baldwin, 2011. "Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation’s 2nd Unbundling: How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 17716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mona Haddad & Cosimo Pancaro, 2010. "Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10178, The World Bank.
  8. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2010. "Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(2), pages 675-727, May.
  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
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