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4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia

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  • González-Gómez, Andrés
  • Guarín-López, Alexander
  • Rodríguez, Diego
  • Vargas-Herrera, Hernando

Abstract

This paper introduces 4GM, a semi-structural model for monetary policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting in Colombia. This model is based on a New-Keynesian rational expectation framework for an oil-exporting small open economy. In this paper, we present the model structure and examine the response of its variables to domestic, foreign and oil-price shocks. Further, we assess 4GM in terms of its historical shock decomposition and its out-of-sample forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • González-Gómez, Andrés & Guarín-López, Alexander & Rodríguez, Diego & Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, 2020. "4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia," Working papers 31, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:rie:riecdt:31
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    2. Karel Musil & Mikhail Pranovich & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2018. "Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2018/254, International Monetary Fund.
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    9. Pietro Bonaldi & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2011. "Importancia de las rigideces nominales y reales en Colombia: un enfoque de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 48-78, December.
    10. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Kevin Clinton & Asish George & Joice John & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Pratik Mitra & G.V. Nadhanael & Hou Wang & Fan Zhang, 2017. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework," IMF Working Papers 2017/032, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Pietro Bonaldi & Juan D. Prada & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2011. "Método numérico para la calibración de un modelo dsge," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, December.
    12. Mr. Maurice Obstfeld & Kevin Clinton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Ms. Yulia Ustyugova & Hou Wang, 2016. "How to Improve Inflation Targeting in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2016/192, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss & Nicolas E. Magud & Fabián Valencia, 2021. "Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 61-94, September.
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    15. Michal Andrle & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Giang Ho, 2014. "A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2014/186, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolás Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2021. "Unraveling the Exogenous Forces Behind Analysts’ Macroeconomic Forecasts," Borradores de Economia 1184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Jose Vicente Romero & Sara Naranjo Saldarriaga, 2022. "Weather Shocks and Inflation Expectations in Semi-Structural Models," IHEID Working Papers 20-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Leonardo Villar-Gómez & Javier Gómez & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Wilmar Cabrera & Hernando Vargas, 2023. "The monetary and macroprudential policy framework in Colombia in the last 30 years: lessons learnt and challenges for the future," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 87-112, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Andres Sanchez-Jabba & Erick Villabon-Hinestroz & Bernardo Romero-Torres, 2023. "Inflation Expectations Measurement and its Effect on Inflation Dynamics in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1257, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Arango, Luis E. & Cardona-Sosa, Lina & Pedraza-Jiménez, Nataly, 2021. "The use of credit cards among low- and middle-income individuals in Colombia and the channels of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 150-169.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Semi-structural model; Monetary policy; Macroeconomic forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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