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Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jaromir Benes
  • Kevin Clinton
  • Asish George
  • Joice John
  • Mr. Ondrej Kamenik
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Pratik Mitra
  • G.V. Nadhanael
  • Hou Wang
  • Fan Zhang

Abstract

India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other countries that adopted FIT to bring out insights on how credible policy with an emphasis on a strong nominal anchor can reduce the impact of supply shocks and improve macroeconomic stability. For illustrating the key issues given the unique structural characteristics of India and the policy options under an FIT framework, the paper describes an analytical framework using the core quarterly projection model (QPM). Simulations of the QPM are carried out to illustrate the monetary policy responses under different types of uncertainty and to bring out the importance of gaining credibility for improving monetary policy efficacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jaromir Benes & Kevin Clinton & Asish George & Joice John & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Pratik Mitra & G.V. Nadhanael & Hou Wang & Fan Zhang, 2017. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework," IMF Working Papers 2017/032, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/032
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Ugo Panizza & Dana Vorisek, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1904, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Martin Feldkircher & Gabriele Tondl, 2020. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 225-247, August.
    3. Andres Gonzalez & Alexander Guarin & Diego A. Rodriguez-Guzman & Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2020. "4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1106, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    5. Nandi, Aurodeep, 2019. "Fiscal deficit targeting alongside flexible inflation targeting: India’s fiscal policy transmission," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies and Transmission Dynamics in India," MPRA Paper 88566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Singh, Gaurav Kumar & Bandyopadhyay, Tathagata, 2021. "Determinants of Disagreement: Learning from Indian Inflation Expectations Survey of Households," IIMA Working Papers WP 2021-01-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    8. Amrendra Pandey & Jagadish Shettigar & Amarnath Bose, 2021. "Evaluation of the Inflation Forecasting Process of the Reserve Bank of India: A Text Analysis Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    9. Gurleen Kaur, 2021. "Inflation and Fiscal Deficit in India: An ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1553-1573, December.

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