IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed016/431.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Information Percolation, Momentum, and Reversal

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Cujean

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business)

  • Daniel Andrei

    (UCLA Anderson)

Abstract

We propose a rational model to explain time-series momentum. The key ingredient is word-of-mouth communication, which we introduce in a noisy rational expectations framework. Word-of-mouth communication accelerates information revelation through prices and generates short-term momentum and long-term reversal. Social interactions allow investors with heterogeneous trading strategies—contrarian and momentum traders—to coexist in the marketplace. As a result, momentum is not completely eliminated, although a significant proportion of investors trade on it. We also show that word-of-mouth communication spreads rumors and generates price run-ups and reversals. Our theoretical predictions are in line with several empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Cujean & Daniel Andrei, 2016. "Information Percolation, Momentum, and Reversal," 2016 Meeting Papers 431, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:431
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2016/paper_431.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Craig W. Holden & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2002. "News Events, Information Acquisition, and Serial Correlation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    3. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-657, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cerezo Sánchez, David, 2018. "The Valuation of Secrecy and the Privacy Multiplier," MPRA Paper 83954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Semih Üslü, 2019. "Pricing and Liquidity in Decentralized Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(6), pages 2079-2140, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2008. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 837-866, August.
    3. Xavier Vives & Giovanni Cespa, 2011. "Higher Order Expectations, Illiquidity, and Short Term Trading," 2011 Meeting Papers 929, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.
    5. Walker, Todd B., 2007. "How equilibrium prices reveal information in a time series model with disparately informed, competitive traders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 512-537, November.
    6. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 3390, CESifo.
    7. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Zhou, Chunsheng, 1998. "Dynamic portfolio choice and asset pricing with differential information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1027-1051, May.
    9. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2636, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2002.
    10. Giovanni Cespa, 2008. "Information Sales and Insider Trading with Long‐Lived Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 639-672, April.
    11. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
    12. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2015. "The Beauty Contest and Short-Term Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2099-2154, October.
    13. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    14. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2012. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 539-580.
    15. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    16. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    17. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 346-369.
    18. Peress, Joel, 2010. "The tradeoff between risk sharing and information production in financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 124-155, January.
    19. Bailey, Warren & Mao, Connie X. & Sirodom, Kulpatra, 2007. "Investment restrictions and the cross-border flow of information: Some empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-25, February.
    20. Marmora, Paul & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2018. "Learning about noise," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 209-224.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed016:431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.