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The Use of Trimming to Improve the Performance of Tests for Nonlinear Serial Dependence with Application to the Australian National Electricity Market

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Author Info
Phillip Wild
Melvin J. Hinich
John Foster (School of Economics, The University of Queensland)

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Abstract

In this article, we build on the results reported in Wild, Hinich and Foster (2008) for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia by testing for episodic nonlinearity in the dynamics governing weekly cycles in spot price time series data. We apply the portmanteau correlation, bicorrelation and tricorrelation tests introduced in Hinich (1996) and the Engle (1982) ARCH LM test to the time series of half hourly spot prices from 7/12/1998 to 29/02/2008. We use trimming to improve the finite sample performance of the various test statistics mentioned above given the presence of significant skewness and leptokurtosis in the source datasets which may adversely affect the convergence properties of the test statistics in finite samples. With trimming, we still find the presence of significant third and fourth order (non-linear) serial dependence in the weekly spot price data, pointing to the presence of ‘deep’ nonlinear structure in this data.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Discussion Papers Series with number 367.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:367

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  1. Kian-Ping Lim & Melvin J. Hinich, 2005. "Cross-temporal universality of non-linear dependencies in Asian stock markets," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ammermann, Peter A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 2003. "The cross-sectional and cross-temporal universality of nonlinear serial dependencies: Evidence from world stock indices and the Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 175-195, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hinich, Melvin A. & Wild, Phillip, 2001. "Testing Time-Series Stationarity Against An Alternative Whose Mean Is Periodic," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 380-412, June. [Downloadable!]
  4. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2007. "GARCH inadequacy for modelling exchange rates: empirical evidence from Latin America," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2529-2533. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kian-Ping Lim & Melvin J. Hinich, 2005. "Non-linear Market Behavior: Events Detection in the Malaysian Stock Market," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(6), pages 1-5. [Downloadable!]
  6. Brooks, Christopher & Hinich, Melvin J, 1998. "Episodic Nonstationarity in Exchange Rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 719-22, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John Foster & Melvin J. Hinich & Phillip Wild, 2008. "Randomly Modulated Periodic Signals in Australias National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 105-130.
  8. Hinich, Melvin J. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2007. "Episodic Nonlinear Event Detection in the Canadian Exchange Rate," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 68-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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