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Are ATM/POS Data Relevant When Nowcasting Private Consumption?

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  • Paulo Soares Esteves
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    Abstract

    Policymakers need timely and reliable information on the current state of the economy as macroeconomic forecasts and policy decisions are strongly affected by the quality and completeness of this assessment. Therefore, forecasters are always in search of new indicators that are related with the macroeconomic variable of interest and available earlier. This paper proposes the use of the ATM/POS data as an indicator to estimate private consumption. An application for Portugal is presented as a case study, where the out of sample performance of this indicator is evaluated against some benchmark naïve models and other alternative bridge models. The results clearly support the use of this information to nowcast non durables private consumption.

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    File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/WP200925.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200925.

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    Date of creation: 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200925

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    1. Esteves, Rui Pedro & Reis, Jaime & Ferramosca, Fabiano, 2009. "Market Integration in the Golden Periphery. The Lisbon/London Exchange, 1854-1891," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 324-345, July.
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