IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/91764.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does asymmetry matter in the relationship between exchange rate and remittance? Evidence from a remittance recipient country based on ARDL and NARDL

Author

Listed:
  • Akhtar, Sharmin
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

The relationship between the exchange rate and remittance has been addressed in the literature. The results of these research papers, however, have been conflicting in terms of causal relationship between these variables. Even when some researches have proven the causality between them, they assume linear and symmetric relationship between them. In our paper, we first test their cointegrating relationship by using time series technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and then test the linear and symmetric assumption in their relationship based on Nonlinear AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). We used 42 years of annual data from 1976 to 2017 of Bangladesh collected from the World Development Indicators database. We used Bangladesh, as it is one of the top ten remittance receiving country in the world. This paper finds that exchange rate significantly impacts remittance in the long run. It also finds that the relationship between the exchange rate and remittance is nonlinear and asymmetric in both long and short run. Policy makers may follow semi-fixed exchange rate policy to maximise the remittance income of the country, while managing exchange rate risk through other economic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Akhtar, Sharmin & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Does asymmetry matter in the relationship between exchange rate and remittance? Evidence from a remittance recipient country based on ARDL and NARDL," MPRA Paper 91764, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91764
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/91764/1/MPRA_paper_91764.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos Vargas‐Silva, 2009. "The Tale of Three Amigos: Remittances, Exchange Rates, and Money Demand in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Ebenezer A. Olubiyi & Kubrat O. Kehinde, 2015. "Does Exchange Rate Affect Remittances in Nigeria?," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 7(1), pages 031-045, June.
    3. Dean Yang, 2008. "International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Exchange Rate Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 591-630, April.
    4. Matiur Rahman & Andrew Foshee & Muhammad Mustafa, 2013. "Remittances–exchange rate nexus: the U.S.–Mexico case," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 47(1), pages 63-74, January-J.
    5. Carlos Vargas-Silva & Peng Huang, 2006. "Macroeconomic determinantsof workers' remittances: Hostversus home country's economic conditions," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 81-99.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Arash Nekoei, 2013. "Immigrants' Labor Supply and Exchange Rate Volatility," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 144-164, October.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman & Pablo A. Acosta, 2012. "Remittances, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 377-395, May.
    10. Pablo A. Acosta & Nicole Rae Baerg & Federico S. Mandelman, 2009. "Financial development, remittances, and real exchange rate appreciation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 94(1), pages 1-12.
    11. World Bank Group, 2017. "Migration and Remittances," World Bank Publications - Reports 28444, The World Bank Group.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Robin C. Sickles & William C. Horrace (ed.), 2014. "Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4899-8008-3, September.
    14. Faini, Riccardo, 1994. "Workers Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Framework," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 235-245.
    15. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2018. "Asymmetric real exchange rates and poverty: The role of remittances," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 111-119.
    16. Matthew Higgins & Alketa Hysenbegasi & Susan Pozo, 2004. "Exchange-rate uncertainty and workers' remittances," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 403-411.
    17. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Vargas‐Silva, 2009. "The Tale of Three Amigos: Remittances, Exchange Rates, and Money Demand in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Farid Farid, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate policy on remittances in Morocco: A Threshold VAR analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2351-2360.
    3. Carlos Vargas-Silva & Peng Huang, 2006. "Macroeconomic determinantsof workers' remittances: Hostversus home country's economic conditions," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 81-99.
    4. Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso, 2021. "Sending money home: Transaction cost and remittances to developing countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(8), pages 2433-2459, August.
    5. Timo Baas & Silvia Maja Melzer, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances: A sending country perspective," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012021, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    6. Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Mishra, Prachi, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Luqman, Muhammad & Ahmad, Najid & Bakhsh, Khuda, 2019. "Nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in Pakistan: Evidence from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1299-1309.
    8. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 45-99, January.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Amine Lahiani & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: the impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1959-1978, December.
    10. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
    11. Shastri, Shruti, 2022. "The impact of infectious diseases on remittances inflows to India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 83-95.
    12. Anupam Das & Murshed Chowdhury, 2019. "Macroeconomic impacts of remittances in Bangladesh: The role of reverse flows," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(3), November.
    13. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Hussain Ghumro, 2018. "Asymmetric Impact Of Exchange Rate Changes On The Trade Balance: Does Global Financial Crisis Matter?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 1-18, December.
    14. NEIFAR, MALIKA & HarzAllah, AMIRA, 2020. "Can Canadian Stock market provide complete hedge against Inflation ?," MPRA Paper 99093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Andries, Natalia & Billon, Steve, 2016. "Retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: An empirical survey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 170-194.
    16. Ibrahim Sirkeci & Jeffrey H. Cohen & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13092, December.
    17. Díaz, Violeta & Soydemir, Gökçe, 2013. "Regional foreclosures and Mexican remittances: Evidence from the housing market crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 74-86.
    18. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 242248, July.
    19. Christos Nikas & Student Anastasia Blouchoutzi, 2014. "Emigrants’ Remittances and the “Dutch Disease” in Small Transition Economies: the Case Of Albania and Moldova," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 45-65, March.
    20. Sabry, Saajid & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Is gold a hedge against equity risk? Malaysian experience based on NARDL approach," MPRA Paper 91584, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Remittance; Asymmetry; Nonlinear ARDL; Causality; Co-integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91764. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.