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An Empirical Model of Learning under Ambiguity: The Case of Clinical Trials

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  • Fernandez, Jose

Abstract

In this paper, I present an empirical model of learning under ambiguity in the context of clinical trials. Patients are concern with learning the treatment effect of the experimental drug, but face the ambiguity of random group assignment. A two dimensional Bayesian model of learning is proposed to capture patients�beliefs on the treatment effect and group assignment. These beliefs are then used to predict patient attrition in clinical trials. Patient learning is demonstrated to be slower when taking into account group ambiguity. In addition, the model corrects for attrition bias in the estimated treatment effect.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8621.

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Date of creation: 03 Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8621

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Keywords: clinical trials; learning; Bayesian; structural model; treatment effect;

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  1. James Heckman & Neil Hohmann & Jeffrey Smith, 1998. "Substitution and Dropout Bias in Social Experiments: A Study of an Influential Social Experiment," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9819, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  2. Stern, Steven, 1994. "Two Dynamic Discrete Choice Estimation Problems and Simulation Method Solutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 695-702, November.
  3. Gregory S. Crawford & Matthew Shum, 2005. "Uncertainty and Learning in Pharmaceutical Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1137-1173, 07.
  4. Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January.
  5. Tat Y. Chan & Barton H. Hamilton, 2006. "Learning, Private Information, and the Economic Evaluation of Randomized Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 997-1040, December.
  6. Daniel A. Ackerberg, 2003. "Advertising, learning, and consumer choice in experience good markets: an empirical examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1007-1040, 08.
  7. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-73, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges and New Developments," Economics Papers 2013-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

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