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Estimation of the Incumbency Effects in the US State Legislatures: A Quasi-Experimental Approach

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Uppal, Yogesh

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Abstract

This paper estimates the incumbency effects in the legislative elections of 45 states in the US during the period 1968-89. I improve upon the existing measures of incumbency by using a quasi-experimental research design that isolates the effect due to incumbency from other contemporaneous factors such as candidate quality. I find that incumbency bestows a significant advantage on incumbents compared with their challengers. The incumbent candidates are about 30 percentage points more likely to win the next election and win 5.3 percentage point more votes than the challengers. However, the advantage is not as large as estimated from the previous methods.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8575/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8575.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8575

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Related research
Keywords: Incumbency Elections Regression Discontinuity

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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  1. Levitt, Steven D, 1994. "Using Repeat Challengers to Estimate the Effect of Campaign Spending on Election Outcomes in the U.S. House," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 777-98, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-09, January.
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