IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/83640.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determination of the viability threshold of the external position in Morocco

Author

Listed:
  • Fadlallah, Abdellali
  • Chakhat, Zakaria

Abstract

This paper discusses the sustainability of the moroccan current account and his assessment. To proceed, a descriptive analysis of the evolution of the current account allowed to to assimilate the behavior of its various components in connection with national and international economic conditions. As a result, it was necessary to examine the different determinants of the behavior of the current account deficit in order to understand economic policy decisions. An econometric analysis was done, in this way, we opte for a VECM that allowed to capture the long-term relationship, then we study the impact of the explanatory variables on the current account. The review of the sustainability threshold calculated by the Reisena method ensures a consistent results examination and shows that signs of unsustainability have emerged since 2008. However, it is only in 2011 that the current account shows deficits that exceed widely the optimal threshold exposing the national economy to extreme vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadlallah, Abdellali & Chakhat, Zakaria, 2017. "Determination of the viability threshold of the external position in Morocco," MPRA Paper 83640, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Dec 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:83640
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83640/1/MPRA_paper_83640.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    3. Mr. G. Russell Kincaid & Mr. Martin Fetherston & Mr. Peter Isard & Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 2001/006, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    5. Mr. Fabio Scacciavillani & Mr. Malcolm D. Knight, 1998. "Current Accounts: What Is Their Relevance for Economic Policymaking?," IMF Working Papers 1998/071, International Monetary Fund.
    6. J. J. Polak, 2001. "The Two Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments: Keynesian and Johnsonian," IMF Working Papers 2001/100, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    2. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca Driver, 2003. "Current Accounts, Net Foreign Assets and the Implications of Cyclical Factors," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 269-286, Spring.
    3. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.
    4. Ali Trabelsi Karoui & Aida Kammoun, 2021. "Exchange Rate Determination: Mixed Microstructural and Macroeconomic Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 89-106.
    5. Mileva, Mariya, 2015. "Valuation effects and long-run real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 390-408.
    6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio I. Garcia Pascual, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," CESifo Working Paper Series 902, CESifo.
    7. Philip Lane, 2007. "The Swedish external position and the krona," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 263-279, November.
    8. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    9. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, March.
    10. Kubota, Megumi, 2011. "Assessing real exchange rate misalignments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5925, The World Bank.
    11. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June.
    12. Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2007. "International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: a dynamic panel analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,23, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/075, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Eva Gutierrez, 2007. "Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 5(2), pages 203-224.
    15. Melisso Boschi, 2012. "Long- and short-run determinants of capital flows to Latin America: a long-run structural GVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1041-1071, December.
    16. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Post-Print halshs-00276402, HAL.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
    18. Lane, Philip R., 2000. "International investment positions: a cross-sectional analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 513-534, August.
    19. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomics Stability and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers 08/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    20. Hoffmann, Mathias & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "International financial integration and national price levels: The role of the exchange rate regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1503-1528.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deficit of the current account ; Viability ; VECM.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:83640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.