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On the predictability of economic structural change by the Poincaré-Bendixson theory

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  • Stijepic, Denis

Abstract

The three-sector framework (relating to agriculture, manufacturing, and services) is one of the major concepts for studying the long-run change of the economic structure. We discuss the system-theoretical classification of the structural change phenomenon and, in particular, the predictability of the structural change in the three-sector framework by the Poincaré-Bendixson theory. To do so, we compare the assumptions of the Poincaré-Bendixson theory to (a) the typical axioms of structural change modelling, (b) the empirical evidence on the geometrical properties of structural change trajectories, and (c) some methodological arguments referring to the laws of structural change. The results of this comparison support the assumption that the structural change phenomenon is representable by a dynamic system that is predictable by the Poincaré-Bendixson theory. Moreover, we discuss briefly the implications of this result for structural change modelling and prediction as well as topics for further research.

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  • Stijepic, Denis, 2017. "On the predictability of economic structural change by the Poincaré-Bendixson theory," MPRA Paper 80849, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Aug 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80849
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    10. Stijepic, Denis, 2017. "On development paths minimizing the structural change costs in the three-sector framework and an application to structural policy," MPRA Paper 77023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Feb 2017.
    11. Stijepic, Denis, 2015. "A geometrical approach to structural change modelling," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 71-85.
    12. Stijepic, Denis, 2019. "A topological approach to structural change analysis and an application to long-run labor allocation dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 453-462.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stijepic, Denis, 2019. "A topological approach to structural change analysis and an application to long-run labor allocation dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 453-462.
    2. Stijepic, Denis, 2017. "Empirical evidence on the geometrical properties of structural change trajectories," MPRA Paper 80854, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Aug 2017.
    3. Stijepic, Denis, 2018. "Models of Continuous Dynamics on the 2-Simplex and Applications in Economics," MPRA Paper 86341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Stijepic, Denis, 2016. "Empirical evidence on the topological properties of structural paths and some notes on its theoretical explanation," MPRA Paper 82473, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poincaré-Bendixson theory; application; economics; structural change; labor reallocation; sectors; dynamics in the plane; simplex; trajectory; topology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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