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Identifying the evolution of stock markets stochastic structure after the euro

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Caiado, Jorge
Crato, Nuno

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Abstract

Previous studies have investigated the comovements of international equity markets by using correlation, cointegration, common factor analysis, and other approaches. In this paper, we investigate the stochastic structure of major euro and non-euro area stock market series from 1994 to 2006, by using cluster analysis techniques for time series. We use an interpolated-periodogram based metric for level and squared returns in order to compute distances between the stock markets. This method captures the stochastic dependence structure of the time series and solves the shortcoming of unequal sample sizes found for different countries. The clusters of countries are formed by the dendrogram and the principal coordinates associated with the sample spectrum for both the series of returns and volatilities. The empirical results suggest that the cross-country groups have become considerably more homogeneous with the introduction of the euro as an electronic currency. For reference, we also explore the pairwise correlations among the series.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6609.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6609

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Related research
Keywords: Cluster analysis Euro area International stock markets Periodogram Stock returns Volatility

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Rita D’Ecclesia & Mauro Costantini, 2006. "Comovements and correlations in international stock markets," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 567-582, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Theodore Syriopoulos, 2004. "International portfolio diversification to Central European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1253-1268, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Caiado, Jorge & Crato, Nuno & Peña, Daniel, 2007. "Comparison of time series with unequal length," MPRA Paper 6605, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. A. Tahai & Robert W. Rutledge & Khondkar E. Karim, 2004. "An examination of financial integration for the group of seven (G7) industrialized countries using an I( 2 ) cointegration model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 327-335, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Caiado, Jorge & Crato, Nuno & Pena, Daniel, 2006. "A periodogram-based metric for time series classification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2668-2684, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
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  9. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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