Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer-term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013
AbstractUsing over a half century of data, this empirical study adopts a simple loanable funds model to investigate the impact of federal budget deficits in the U.S. on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year U.S. Treasury notes. Three estimates using annual data for three different time periods (1960-2013, 1971-2013, 1980-2013) are provided; in addition, as a de facto modest test of robustness, one additional estimate using quarterly data for the period 1960.1 through 2013.4 is also provided. In each of the four empirical analyses, an autoregressive 2SLS estimate finds that the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year U.S. Treasury notes is an increasing function of the ex post real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds, the ex post real interest rate yield on three year Treasury notes, and the ex post real interest rate yield on high grade municipal bonds. This exploratory analysis also finds consistent evidence that federal budget deficit (relative to the GDP level) exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 55264.
Date of creation: 24 Mar 2014
Date of revision:
real longer-term interest rate; government budget deficit;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-04-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2014-04-18 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2014-04-18 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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