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An Empirical Note on the Inflation Impact of the Price of Imported Crude Oil: The Case of Germany

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  • Cebula, Richard
  • Saadatmand, Yassaman
  • Piccone, Yvonne

Abstract

This study empirically investigates whether the assumption of the monetary authority in pre-2000 Germany that rising prices of imported crude oil would lead to domestic inflation in Germany had validity. In a model where unemployment rate changes, money stock growth, and wage growth are all allowed for, OLS estimation reveals that although the inflation rate in Germany typically is not sensitive to increasing prices on imported crude oil, crude oil price "shocks" of 50 percent or more during any calendar year have in the past led to significant domestic inflation for the German economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50887.

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Date of creation: 07 Jan 2002
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Publication status: Published in Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali 4.49(2002): pp. 531-537
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50887

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Keywords: inflation; price of imported crude oil; oil price shocks; Germany;

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  1. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  2. Cebula, Richard J & Frewer, Michael, 1980. "Oil Imports and Inflation: An Empirical International Analysis of the 'Imported' Inflation Thesis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 615-22.
  3. Cebula , Richard J., 2000. "A Brief Empirical Note on the Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Domestic Inflation: The Case of the United States, 1965-1999," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 53(4), pages 449-454.
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