Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Garloff, Alfred

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Pohl, Carsten

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Schanne, Norbert

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"In this paper we study the effect of small labor market entry cohorts on (un)employment in Western Germany. From a theoretical point of view, decreasing cohort sizes may on the one hand reduce unemployment due to 'inverse cohort crowding' or on the other hand increase unemployment if companies reduce jobs disproportionately. Consequently, the actual effect of cohort shrinking on (un)employment is an empirical question. We analyze the relationship between (un)employment and cohort sizes using a long panel of Western German labor market regions. In this context, we account for both the likely endogeneity of cohort size due to migration of the (young) workforce across regions using lagged births as instruments as well as for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. Our results provide good news for the (Western) German labor market: small entry cohorts are indeed likely to decrease the overall unemployment rate and thus to improve the situation of job seekers. Accordingly, with regard to the employment rate we find that it is positively affected by a decrease in the youth share." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2011/dp1811.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 201118.

as in new window
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 12 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Demographic Research, Vol. 29, Art. 15 (2013), p. 379-406
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201118

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Regensburger Str. 104, D-90327 Nürnberg
Phone: 0911/179-0
Fax: 0911/179-3258
Email:
Web page: http://www.iab.de/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: demografischer Wandel - Auswirkungen; Arbeitslosenquote; Bevölkerungsstruktur; Altersstruktur; regionaler Vergleich; Bevölkerungsrückgang; Beschäftigungseffekte; Arbeitsuchende; Arbeitsmarktchancen; Geburtenrückgang; Jugendliche; junge Erwachsene; demografischer Wandel - internationaler Vergleich; Westdeutschland; Bundesrepublik Deutschland; OECD;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Patuelli, Roberto & Schanne, Norbert & Griffith, Daniel A. & Nijkamp, Peter, 2011. "Persistence of regional unemployment : Application of a spatial filtering approach to local labour markets in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201103, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  2. David G. Blanchflower & Richard B. Freeman, 2000. "Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number blan00-1.
  3. Skans, Oskar Nordstrom, 2005. "Age effects in Swedish local labor markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 419-426, March.
  4. Macunovich, Diane J., 2009. "Older Men: Pushed into Retirement by the Baby Boomers?," IZA Discussion Papers 4652, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Siliverstovs, Boriss & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Thiessen, Ulrich, 2011. "Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 244-260, June.
  6. Bester, C. Alan & Conley, Timothy G. & Hansen, Christian B., 2011. "Inference with dependent data using cluster covariance estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 137-151.
  7. Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Fortune of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size and the Youth Labor Market in the United States," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 6, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  8. Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1991. "Ageing and the Labor Market: Age Structure, Cohort Size and Unemployment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 177-200, August.
  9. Jan Mutl & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2011. "The Hausman test in a Cliff and Ord panel model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 48-76, February.
  10. Margarita Sapozhnikov & Robert K. Triest, 2007. "Population Aging, Labor Demand, and the Structure of Wages," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-14, Center for Retirement Research, revised Oct 2007.
  11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  12. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
  13. Robert Shimer, 1999. "Why is the U.S. Unemployment Rate So Much Lower?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 11-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Berger, Mark C, 1985. "The Effect of Cohort Size on Earnings Growth: A Reexamination of the Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 561-73, June.
  15. George L. Perry, 1970. "Changing Labor Markets and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 411-448.
  16. Dorner, Matthias & Heining, Jörg & Jacobebbinghaus, Peter & Seth, Stefan, 2010. "Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975-2008," FDZ Methodenreport 201009_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  17. Schanne, Norbert & Wapler, Rüdiger & Weyh, Antje, 2008. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," IAB Discussion Paper 200828, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  18. Macunovich, Diane J., 2009. "Older Women: Pushed into Retirement by the Baby Boomers?," IZA Discussion Papers 4653, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain The Rising Return To College For Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746, May.
  20. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Kohn, Karsten, 2006. "Skill wage premia, employment, and cohort effects: are workers in Germany all of the same type?," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-44, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  21. Ochsen, Carsten, 2009. "Regional labor markets and aging in Germany," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 102, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  22. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
  23. Dorner, Matthias & Heining, Jörg & Jacobebbinghaus, Peter & Seth, Stefan, 2010. "Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975-2008," FDZ Datenreport. Documentation on Labour Market Data 201001_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  24. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
  25. Christopher L. Foote, 2007. "Space and time in macroeconomic panel data: young workers and state-level unemployment revisited," Working Papers 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Caliendo, Marco & Hogenacker, Jens & Künn, Steffen & Wießner, Frank, 2011. "Alte Idee, neues Programm: Der Gründungszuschuss als Nachfolger von Überbrückungsgeld und Ich-AG," IZA Discussion Papers 6035, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Engelmann, Sabine, 2011. "Trade liberalisation, technical change and skill-specific unemployment," IAB Discussion Paper 201119, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  3. Schmelzer, Paul, 2011. "Unemployment and occupational mobility at the beginning of employment career in Germany and the UK," IAB Discussion Paper 201125, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  4. Zapfel, Stefan & Promberger, Markus, 2011. "Gemeinschaft, Gesellschaft und soziale Sicherung : Überlegungen zu Genese und Wandel des modernen Wohlfahrtsstaats," IAB Discussion Paper 201121, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  5. Alfred Garloff & Rüdiger Wapler, 2013. "Are the Number of Skilled Workers Running Out in Germany? The (Non)-Consequences of Demographic Change," ERSA conference papers ersa13p854, European Regional Science Association.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IAB, Geschäftsbereich Dokumentation und Bibliothek).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.