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Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: Sources and Potential

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  • Lord, Montague

Abstract

his study provides an analysis of the sources of Uzbekistan’s economic growth, the challenges and opportunities for the private sector in those sectors, and policy measures that would support the expansion of the economy. It is specifically intended to provide an analysis of the macroeconomic issues surrounding the reforms needed to meet the Government's Living Standard Strategy (LSS) growth target, as well as to identify existing policy and structural constraints and macroeconomic policy reforms measures that would help to remove those constraints. The indicative forecasts of Uzbekistan’s economy presented in this report have been generating by two macroeconomic simulation models that were developed as part of the present economic growth analysis for Uzbekistan. The first is a Revised Minimum Standard Model - eXtended (RMSM-X) that provides a simple spreadsheet-based tool for feasibility and sustainability analysis of the economy of Uzbekistan. The present RMSM-X model for Uzbekistan has been modified from other models of this type in a number of ways to accommodate existing data constraints of the country. Essentially, a number of key economic indicators used in Uzbekistan replaced some of the standard indicators used in the RMSM-X model, while others used in the RMSM-X model for which data were not available in Uzbekistan needed to be eliminated and some of the relationships in the system altered to accommodate the changes. The second macroeconomic simulation model that has been developed for Uzbekistan also provides a parsimonious representation of the macro economy using a simple spreadsheet framework for making rational and consistent predictions about Uzbekistan’s overall economic activity, the standard components of the balance of payments, the expenditure concepts of the national accounts, and the financial sector balances. The model applies a conventional framework to the economic system and, as a policy-oriented system it incorporates key parameters for policy formulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lord, Montague, 2005. "Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: Sources and Potential," MPRA Paper 50731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Republic of Estonia: Staff Report for the 2001 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2001/097, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Thilak Ranaweera, 2003. "Alternative paths to structural adjustment in a three-gap model: the case of Uzbekistan," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 595-611.
    3. World Bank, 2005. "Global Economic Prospects 2005 : Trade, Regionalism and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14783, December.
    4. Ranaweera,Thilakaratna, 2003. "Alternative paths to structural adjustment in Uzbekistan in a three-gap framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3145, The World Bank.
    5. Alam, Asad & Banerji, Arup, 2000. "Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan - a tale of two transition paths," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2472, The World Bank.
    6. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Günther Taube, 1998. "Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects," IMF Working Papers 1998/132, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uzbekistan; Revised Minimum Standard Model eXtended; RMSM-X; macro-econometric model; macroeconomic simulation model; demand decomposition; savings and investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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