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Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects

Author

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  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
  • Mr. Günther Taube

Abstract

What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Günther Taube, 1998. "Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects," IMF Working Papers 1998/132, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/132
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bo??tjan Jazbec, 2002. "Real Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 482, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    3. Lord, Montague, 2005. "Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: Sources and Potential," MPRA Paper 50731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ranaweera, Thilak, 2003. "Market disequilibria and inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3144, The World Bank.
    5. Richard Pomfret, 2009. "Central Asia after Two Decades of Independence," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2009-32, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    6. Richard Pomfret, 2010. "Central Asia after Two Decades of Independence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-053, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Edward R. Gemayel & David A. Grigorian, 2006. "How Tight is Too Tight? A Look at Welfare Implications of Distortionary Policies in Uzbekistan," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 3(2), pages 239-261, December.
    8. Pomfret, Richard, 2000. "Agrarian Reform in Uzbekistan: Why Has the Chinese Model Failed to Deliver?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 269-284, January.
    9. MC. Spechler, 2000. "Uzbekistan: the silk road to nowhere?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 295-303, July.
    10. Auty, R. M., 2001. "Transition reform in the mineral-rich Caspian region countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 25-32, March.
    11. Richard Pomfret, 2006. "Coordinating Aid for Regional Cooperation Projects: The Experience of Central Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp163, IIIS.

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