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Perspectiva Macroeconomica y Tendencias en el Mercado de Deuda Latinoamericano: ¿El viraje hacia instrumentos de Fondeo Domesticos?
[Macroeconomic Outlook and Trends in Latin American Debt Capital Markets: A turn to domestic sources of funding?]

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  • Avellaneda-Kantt, Maria Belen
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    Abstract

    After overcoming various financial crises in the mid-90's and early millennium (Tequila, Asian, Russian, Brazil, Argentina and Ecuador) Latin America found a proper environment conducive to reach sustained growth and macroeconomic stability. Endogenous elements - such as credit growth, the implementation of countercyclical funds, prudential public finances management, the establishment of inflation targets, the incentive to accumulate reserves, healthier external balances- and exogenous factors, mainly linked to an increase in commodity prices and low international interest rates, favored a scenario of higher output growth for the region as a whole. During these last years Latin American companies have been able to increase their production capacity, expand regionally and globally. Governments have made huge investment projects related to infrastructure and communications. The latter was facilitated by the context described above as well as the optimism created by greater political stability. Correspondingly, it was also driven by the amount of new funding instruments that have been available. There is whole range of financial products; from local to global emissions, settled in foreign or local currency, extension of liquidity lines, mixed instruments powered by multilateral banks, use of collateral for export finance, structured asset-backed securities are just a glimpse of all the financial spectrum of possibilities. These changes have provided governments the necessary tools to mitigate the impacts of the global financial crisis, especially on their most vulnerable populations. However, in the advent of a potential decline in growth from 2011-2013 -with respect to the strong rebound in 2010- it is expected that a number of factors will limit the margin of actions that the authorities have to implement further countercyclical policies. Thus, the delayed recovery of the U.S., the deepening of the European crisis, a possible reversal of the terms of trade, less favorable external accounts and domestic inflationary processes will undermine the responsiveness of governments to the new situation. In this context it is of great importance to understand and appreciate relevant trends in some of the sources capable of enabling growth financing, while encouraging investment and job creation. This paper focuses on the characteristics and trends in Latin American debt capital markets, highlighting the importance of having domestic sources of funding as well as local currency issues. The investigation continues the discussion presented by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (2008) about "the forgotten history of domestic debt" and research studies elaborated by Serge Jeanneau and Camilo Tovar (2008) in relation to local currency bond issues. It also exhibits the advantages and disadvantages of these trends; revisiting E. Cavallo’s question (2010) on how safe is really the new debt composition. To introduce the analysis of debt markets in a framework and a chronological conjuncture, the starting point of this study is an assessment form based on the behavior of key macroeconomic variables. First the macroeconomic fundamentals that underpin the functioning of financial markets are measured, examining whether major changes have occurred or just temporary responses have been randomly implemented (something common in the region). Secondly, an overview of the Latin American debt markets will be presented, focusing on the factors that have allowed their recent development. Afterwards, the main characteristics of local bond markets and current trends will be exhibit. This includes revealing trends in local currency debt issuances, prevailing actors as well as discussing the role of regional and multilateral banks. This work is intended to be "communicated" to a diverse audience: academia, public policy makers and private sector. In this sense it has sought to provide concrete examples that account for the trends found. Data sources used include ECLAC statistics, the database of the Inter-American Development, Bank of International Settlements (BIS), World Bank database, multiple International Monetary Fund (IMF) datasets, OECD reports and statistics, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), Emerging Markets Trading Association (EMTA), official data from central banks, investment banks research and rating agencies. Data from Bond Radar, Bloomberg and Dealogic was also utilized, as well as data sets constructed by researchers.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44271.

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    Date of creation: 20 Oct 2012
    Date of revision: 16 Jan 2013
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44271

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    Keywords: Latin American Debt Markets;

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    References

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    1. S M Ali Abbas & Jakob E Christensen, 2010. "The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 209-255, April.
    2. Kevin Cowan & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts," Research Department Publications 4480, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Camilo E Tovar & Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, 2008. "New financing trends in Latin America," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), New financing trends in Latin America: a bumpy road towards stability, volume 36, pages 1-14 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ugo Panizza & Eduardo Borensztein & Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Debt Instruments and Policies in the New Millennium: New Markets and New Opportunities," Research Department Publications 4456, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, 05.
    8. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Jorge Desormeaux & Claudio González, 2002. "Capital markets in Chile: from financial repression to financial deepening," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 86-102 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
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