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A P* Model of Inflation in Puerto Rico

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  • Rodríguez, Carlos A.
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    Abstract

    One can analyze and forecast the inflationary potential in the Puerto Rican economy using the “P* model.” Given the nature of the monetary sector in Puerto Rico (PR), the model is put into the context of variables from the mainland United States (US). The results indicate a long-run relationship between the money supply (M1) of the US and the price level in PR, between M1 and real production in PR, and between M1 and the prime rate in PR. The implications for forecasting and policy are discussed.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41278/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 41278.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2004
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    Publication status: Published in American Review of Political Economy 2.2(2004): pp. 16-41
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41278

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    Keywords: Econometric Modeling; Time Series Analysis; Forecasting Methods; Monetary Economics;

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    1. Jeffrey J. Hallman & Richard G. Anderson, 1993. "Has the long-run velocity of M2 shifted? Evidence from the P* model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 14-26.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    3. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    4. Hall, Stephen G & Milne, Alistair, 1994. "The Relevance of P-Star Analysis to UK Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 597-604, May.
    5. Galindo, Luis Miguel, 1997. "El modelo P* como indicador de la política monetaria en una economía con alta inflación," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(254), pages 221-239, abril-jun.
    6. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
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