The Collective Wisdom of Beauty Contests
AbstractThis note uses techniques developed for aggregate games to characterize the set of equilib- ria for a beauty contest or prediction game in which the experts’ preferences are quadratic, but with an otherwise unrestricted information structure for private signals and the state variable. We show that, on aggregate, the experts’ collective estimate of the unknown parameter to be estimated is unbiased for every equilibrium.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32872.
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Aggregate games; beauty contests; prediction games;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
- C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-CTA-2011-08-29 (Contract Theory & Applications)
- NEP-GTH-2011-08-29 (Game Theory)
- NEP-MIC-2011-08-29 (Microeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martimort, David & Stole, Lars, 2011. "Aggregate Representations of Aggregate Games," MPRA Paper 32871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- David P. Myatt & Chris Wallace, 2008. "On the Sources and Value of Information: Public Announcements and Macroeconomic Performance," Economics Series Working Papers 411, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
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