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The Collective Wisdom of Beauty Contests

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  • Martimort, David
  • Stole, Lars

Abstract

This note uses techniques developed for aggregate games to characterize the set of equilib- ria for a beauty contest or prediction game in which the experts’ preferences are quadratic, but with an otherwise unrestricted information structure for private signals and the state variable. We show that, on aggregate, the experts’ collective estimate of the unknown parameter to be estimated is unbiased for every equilibrium.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32872/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32872.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32872

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Keywords: Aggregate games; beauty contests; prediction games;

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  1. Martimort, David & Stole, Lars, 2011. "Aggregate Representations of Aggregate Games," MPRA Paper 32871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Prendergast, Canice & Stole, Lars, 1996. "Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Old-Timers: Acquiring a Reputation for Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1105-34, December.
  3. David P. Myatt & Chris Wallace, 2008. "On the Sources and Value of Information: Public Announcements and Macroeconomic Performance," Economics Series Working Papers 411, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  5. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Efficient Use of Information and Social Value of Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1103-1142, 07.
  6. Martimort, David & Stole, Lars, 2011. "Public Contracting in Delegated Agency Games," MPRA Paper 32874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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