Evolution or revolution? a study of price and wage volatility in England, 1200-1900
AbstractUsing annual data 1209-1914, this paper examines whether there are structural breaks in the movements of prices and wages that correspond to the major ‘revolutions’ identified in historical narratives. Econometric modelling of trend and volatility in prices and wages confirms the importance of the Commercial Revolution and the Glorious Revolution, but suggests that the Industrial Revolution may be better described in evolutionary terms. The evidence also points to a late medieval revolution at the time of the Good Parliament, shortly after the Black Death and just before the Peasant’s Revolt. This supports Britnell and Campbell’s commercialisation hypothesis - that the institutional pre-conditions for the Industrial Revolution began to develop at a very early date.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 31518.
Date of creation: 13 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Economic evolution; Economic revolution; Historical economics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rossana, Robert J & Seater, John J, 1992. "Aggregation, Unit Roots and the Time Series Structure on Manufacturing Real Wages," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 159-79, February.
- Carlos, Ann M., 2003. "The Rise of Commercial Empires: England and the Netherlands in the Age of Mercantilism, 1650 1770. By David Ormond. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. Pp. ix, 388. $75.00," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(04), pages 1154-1155, December.
- Dabin Wang & William G. Tomek, 2007. "Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 873-889.
- Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J, 1998.
"How Labour Market Flexibility Affects Unemployment: Long-Term Implications of the Chain Reaction Theory,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 832-49, May.
- Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1998. "How Labour Market Flexibility Affects Unemployment: Long-Term Implications of the Chain Reaction Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kowaleski,Maryanne, 1995. "Local Markets and Regional Trade in Medieval Exeter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521333719, Fall.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998.
"Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models,"
Cahiers de recherche
9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990.
"On The Behavior of Commodity Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Tony Moore, 2008. "Interest in medieval accounts: Examples from England, 1272-1340," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2008-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.
- Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2007.
"Are there Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?,"
tecipa-304, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(3), pages 326-360, Summer.
- Allen,Robert C., 2009.
"The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521868273, Fall.
- Allen,Robert C., 2009. "The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521687850, Fall.
- O’Brien, Patrick, 2010. "A conjuncture in global history or an Anglo-American construct: the British Industrial Revolution, 1700–1850," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 503-509, November.
- Allen, Robert C., 2001. "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 411-447, October.
- Munro, John H., 2002. "The medieval origins of the 'Financial Revolution': usury, rentes, and negotiablity," MPRA Paper 10925, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2002.
- Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Krämer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2002.
"Testing and dating of structural changes in practice,"
2002,39, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.