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Banking integration and co-movements in EU banks’ fragility

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  • Vulpes, Giuseppe
  • Brasili, Andrea

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to verify whether and to which extent co-movements in EU banks’ risk, i.e. their degree of exposures of European banks to common shocks, have increased in time, following the completion of Monetary Union, the introduction of the euro and the process of European banking integration. To this end, we provide a measure of co-movements in bank risk by means of a dynamic factor model, which allows to decompose an indicator of bank fragility, the Distance-to-Default, into three main components: an EU-wide, a country-specific and a bank-level idiosyncratic component. Our results show the commonality in bank risk appears to have significantly increased since 1999, in particular if one concentrates on large banks. We also show that co-movements in EU banks’ fragility are only in part related to common macro shocks and that a banking system specific component at the EU-wide level appears relevant. This has obvious consequences in terms of systemic stability, but may also have far reaching policy implications with regards to the structuring of banking supervision in Europe

Suggested Citation

  • Vulpes, Giuseppe & Brasili, Andrea, 2006. "Banking integration and co-movements in EU banks’ fragility," MPRA Paper 1964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1964
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 109-138, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    3. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    4. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence in stock markets: Have they been misdiagnosed?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 405-426.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seungjun Lee & Jaewoon Koo & Youngsik Kwak, 2014. "Determinants Of Common Factors In Korean Banks’ Credit Default Swap Premiums," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 6(3), pages 100-108, December.
    2. Francesco Vallascas & Kevin Keasey, 2013. "The Volatility of European Banking Systems: A Two-Decade Study," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 37-68, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-movements; dynamic factor models; distance-to-default; Systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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