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Co-movements in EU banks’ fragility: a dynamic factor model approach

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Author Info

  • Andrea Brasili

    (UniCredit Banca d'Impresa)

  • Giuseppe Vulpes

    (UniCredit Banca d'Impresa)

Abstract

We analyse co-movements in the fragility of EU banks and verify to which extent such co-movements have increased in time, following, for example, the completion of Monetary Union and the introduction of the euro. To this end, we provide a measure of co-movements in bank risk by means of a dynamic factor model, which allows to decompose an indicator of bank fragility, the Distance-to-Default, into three main components: an EU- wide, a country-specific and a bank-level idiosyncratic component. Our results show the commonality in bank risk appears to have significantly increased since 1999, in particular if one concentrates on large banks. This has obvious consequences in terms of systemic stability, but may also have far reaching policy implications with regards to the structuring of banking supervision in Europe (i.e. it increases the scope for supervisory co-operation at EU-wide level). We also believe that co-movements in bank conditions are important for monetary policy since banks still constitute monetary policy’s most important transmission channel.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0411011.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 08 Nov 2004
Date of revision: 02 Nov 2005
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0411011

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 37
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Co-movements; dynamic factor models; distance-to-default; Systemic risk;

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References

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  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  2. Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 109-138 Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  4. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence in stock markets: Have they been misdiagnosed?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 405-426.
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Cited by:
  1. Phil Molyneux & Klaus Schaeck & Tim Zhou, 2011. "‘Too Systemically Important to Fail’ in Banking," Working Papers 11011, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).

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