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The 2002 Downturn in State Revenues: A Comparative Review and Analysis

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  • Giertz, J Fred
  • Giertz, Seth

Abstract

We analyze the behavior of state revenues since the early 1950s to determine the severity of the revenue declines experienced by states after the 2001 recession. Both total state revenues for the nation and state–level data for each state are studied. We conclude that the states were indeed hit with an unprecedented downturn in revenues—unlike anything that had been experienced in the preceding half–century. Further and contrary to general perceptions, revenue increases in the years preceding the downturn were not particularly strong compared to revenue increases in the years leading up to previous recessions. We further conclude that most proposed budget rules dealing with either taxes, spending, or savings would have been insufficient to address the states’ problems and that states will need major discretionary structural changes in state revenues and expenditures to return to fiscal balance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18316.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18316

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Keywords: State Revenues; Business Cycle; State Budget;

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  1. James M. Poterba, 1993. "State Responses to Fiscal Crisis: The Effects of Budgetary Institutionsand Politics," NBER Working Papers 4375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mary Daly, 2003. "Understanding state budget troubles," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug15.
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